Donald Trump; Definitely Not Going To Be President

Apparently, Donald Trump wants to spend more time with his business interests rather than running for US President. I rather suspect, though, that his main concern (despite protestations to the contrary) is the fear of losing. After all, he's a brand - and an ignominious defeat to someone like Sarah Palin or Mitt Romney in the Republican primaries would damage that brand. As well as potentially damaging his colossal ego. Because he would never have made it all the way to being the nominee, and therefore the man Obama will defeat next year. He was not, and will never be, a credible candidate for the highest office in the US.

But Trump isn't the only one to opt of the race to be beaten by Obama - the ever idiotic Mike Huckabee has said "all the factors say go, but my heart says no." Whatever the fuck that might mean. As far as I can see, rather like Trump, what he actually means is that the factors are really saying no. He knows he would lose (again) if he decided to run. Wouldn't win the general election. Mainly because he wouldn't even make it to being the nominee. Last time, he lost to a grumpy old man. This time, who knows who he would lose to? The only guarantee would be that he would lose...

Of course, all of this reduces the field of potential Republican nominees. And actually makes it much less mental. Now all we need is for Sarah Palin to say she's not running and we might end up with a field of sane, if rather dull, people vying for the nomination. Which probably won't lead to a Republican President come 2013, but will also mean that the party of Teddy Roosevelt, Dwight Eisenhower and Ronald Reagan hasn't been completely captured by its loopy, extremist elements.

Mitt Romney - Republican Front-Runner?

You know, with regard to the Republican nomination for next year’s presidential election, I keep on hearing the name Mitt Romney being mentioned as the frontrunner. And for the life of me, I can’t work out why.

Part of the reason is that Mitt Romney is not an inspiring candidate. In fact, when I think of the name Mitt Romney, all I can think of is the man who strapped a dog to the roof of his car before setting off on a long journey. And that sort of thing doesn’t immediately make me think “oh, he’d be a good president”. Or a credible candidate for the presidency.

Of course, he’s far saner than some of the other potential candidates – and yes, I’m talking about Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee here. He might be dull, insipid and uninspiring (with a penchant for unintentional [?] animal cruelty, but at least he looks and sounds like a credible (if deeply boring) candidate for the presidency. Which maybe why, given his track record of failure when seeking the Republican nomination, he has become the frontrunner.

There’s a precedent for this, of course. A US political party faces the prospect of having to run a presidential campaign with someone far away from the centre ground. Therefore, they take action, and the establishment moves to embrace a much more mainstream candidate. It happened to the Democrats, for example, in 2004, when the more radical Howard Dean (who, for a long-time seemed destined to be the nominee) was replaced by the much more mainstream (and much more pedestrian) John Kerry.

Which is the point – if nominated, Mitt Romney will be the Republican’s answer to John Kerry. And we all know how John Kerry’s bid for the presidency ended…

Mike Huckabee - Still a Mentalist.

Ah, Mike Huckabee – it’s been a while since you last crossed my mind. I assumed your political career was over – mainly because you were beaten to the Republican nomination by a grumpy old man whose main selling point was that he was saner than you. But no. You’re still out there, talking terrifying shite.

Here’s the latest quote from one of the US’s favourite bible-bashing political nut-jobs:

I almost wish that there would be, like, a simultaneous telecast, and all Americans would be forced — forced at gunpoint no less — to listen to every David Barton message, and I think our country would be better for it. I wish it’d happen.

David Barton is, in case you were wondering, a fellow Christian fundamentalist. And the apparently delusional Huckabee thinks his fellow citizens should be forced at the barrel of a gun to listen to the fundamentalist toss.

Of course, Huckabee being Huckabee does this with a smile on his face, and makes his extraordinarily illiberal suggestion in a lighthearted way. Which is precisely what makes him so dangerous. He puts a genial face on Christian fundamentalism: he makes his brand of extremism look very, very friendly. Surely he can’t be a threat? I mean, he’s very folksy. Even when he is talking about using the threat of violence to make the people he aspires to rule to listen to his own particular brand of ethereal bullshit.

If Huckabee does run, I hope that this quote is repeated over and over again, so every moderate Republican can see and understand that Huckabee is a dangerous loon.

Huckabee, DuMond and Clemmons

Far be it for me to take considerable relish in the misfortunes of another Christian fundamentalist candidate in the USA, but it appears that Mike Huckabee is having some problems based on some decisions he made back when he was governor of Arkansas. Namely the decision to give clemency to a violent criminal. Who went on, it appears, to murder four police officers:

A man with an extensive criminal past -- whose 95-year prison sentence was commuted in Arkansas nearly a decade ago by then-Gov. Mike Huckabee-- was being sought Sunday as a "person of interest" in a deadly ambush on four police officers who were gunned down inside a coffee shop.

And, rather like this alleged cop killer, Huckabee has previous:

Huckabee did not pardon Dumond. But he did everything he could, including telling parole board members who owed their jobs to Huck in a secret meeting to parole him. He advocated Dumond's cause publicly, wrote a letter expressing his wish for Dumond's freedom and spurned Dumond's rape victim until a public outcry forced him to meet her and let the parole board do his dirty work for him.

And who is Dumond? Well, he was Wayne DuMond - a man convicted of statutory rape who was paroled after aggressive lobbying from Huckabee. DuMond went on to rape and kill one Carol Sue Shields. And he was also suspected in the murder of one Sara Andrasek. It appears as if Huckabee's decisions when it came to prisoner rehabilitation have cost six people their lives. Such a revelation is hardly going to play that well with the fire and brimstone brigade who are Huckabee's support base.

Of course, justice is administered by humans, and as a result is far from perfect. And if you believe that criminals can be rehabilitated then you have accept that at some point they will be released back into the community. And at that point, some will take the second chance they have been offered, whilst others will abuse that chance and steal, hurt, rape and kill. You can question Huckabee's judgement for sure, but the reality is that this sort of thing could have happened to any governor in the US - and pretty much any politician who influences or makes decisions about who stays in prison and who does not. So I almost feel a little sorry for Huckabee.

Except he is part of the party who sank Michael Dukakis's 1988 bid for the Presidency by relentlessly highlighting a similar circumstance, where a prisoner on a Dukakis created prisoner furlough programme committed several heinous crimes. The Republicans had no issue with relentlessly using Horton to bash Dukakis, so there is no reason for Huckabee to expect anyone else both within the Republican party and across American politics not to exactly the same to him. Is it fair? Possibly not. However, it is reality.

Whether it should or not, I think this will sink Huckabee's ambitions to be President. And since he is a grinning fundamentalist idiot who shouldn't be allowed to visit the White House, let alone reside there, this can only be a good thing.

It seems appropriate somehow that in a pie chart that adds up to 193% the winning candidate is Sarah Palin...

Via Mr E.

Bush et al: Proof Positive There Is No God

I think that, without too much effort, we can take certain Christian fundamentalists in the US - like George W. Bush, Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin - and use them as proof that God doesn't exist. This will be controversial for some, but bear with me as I explain.

The first thing to note from God in the Bible, particularly in the Old Testament, is that God is quite an interventionist sort of a chap. He seems to be happiest when he is getting involved with his creation and - more often than not - getting his hands dirty. God sees a problem in the Old Testament, and he deals with it.

And the Old Testament God has no problem in dealing with problems in quite a harsh way. Make no mistake about this - the Old Testament God is a smiting God. One can imagine the Old Testament God getting out of bed in the morning and being asked by Mrs God "what are you up to today?" God's response would be simple - "I'm a-goin' a-smitin'!" This is the God who evicted Adam and Eve from the Garden of Eden like an irate landlord. He's the God who made like a demolition expert on the Tower of Babel. He's the "good" Lord who treated the citizens of Swansea Sodom and Gomorrah to fire and brimstone, like some sort of puritanical terrorist. And he's the God who fucked up the whole life of Job because - and this is the bit that staggers me - Job believed in God. The Old Testament God has no issue with having a pop at those who disappoint him. He also sounds like a massive wanker as well, but that's a side issue.

The New Testament God is a little different. Some would argue that he ceases to be an interventionist, but I'd counter that by pointing out that having his son wandering around around the Middle East carrying out miracles is a little interventionist. Nonetheless, the God of the New Testament is a little more loving than his Old Testament incarnation. In fact, some of the teachings of Jesus are genuinely uplifting and revolutionary ideas that have never been properly tried in the real world. Love thy neighbour? Sounds pretty radical to me. And something people across the world and across history - including Christians - have never really tried to do. It is in the teachings of Jesus that we get the idea that "God is Love". In the Old Testament, you're left with the feeling "God is Angry. And Coming For You."

So to recap. We have a God whose son preaches love. A God who is willing to intervene in this world. And a God who is really ready and willing to have a go at those who don't do what God wants. So why the hell does this God allow the likes of George W Bush, Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin to strut around dragging the concept of Christianity into the gutter? Those listed - and others like them - have nothing to do with messages of hope, tolerance, peace and love. They have nothing to do with faith. They prefer unthinking dogma and deep - sometimes violent - suspicion of those who don't share their faith. They take Christianity and use it as an excuse to dismiss other people and force their views on a world that God apparently gave free will to. They are an embarrassment to God and the religion based on his son's alleged teachings. And given God had no problem with intervening in the past, I do really wonder why he doesn't do something about these ersatz apostles right now. As the Editors sing, "If there really was a God here, he'd have raised a hand by now."

Of course, the above is a little tongue-in-cheek. It also requires quite a slanted reading of the Bible, and ignores the notion that God can't intervene in human matters without proving his own existence, and thus destroying the concept of faith. After all, it is very easy to have faith in something that is a proven fact. Yet what Christians could take from this is just how damaging it is to have leading lights such as Bush Junior and Palin representing their faith. Even if people were able to overcome the deeply unlikely central stories of the Christian faith, then they would still have to contend with the idea of joining a movement that was, for eight years, represented in a major way by one of the worst Presidents in the history of the USA. The problems many people have with Christianity in this day and age is not just having to buy into highly improbable stories of resurrection and miracles, but also having to buy into a faith increasingly dominated by ignorant dogmatists and those who appear to represent just about anything other than the more inspirational teachings of Jesus.

Election 2012:

With just under four years to go before America votes for its next President, you’d be forgiven for thinking that it was a little early to start speculating on who will be vying for the Republican nomination next time out. But column inches need to be filled, so we’re going to get speculation anyway. And one such potential name being speculated on is that of Bobby Jindal. To the extent where even The Daily Telegraph has noticed he exists.

Whether or not Jindal would be a good candidate is pretty much irrelevant to me at this point – not just because the decision won’t have to be made for a good few years, but far more fundamentally because he’s already said he won’t run. Sure, things change, but I don’t think Jindal will be alone in deciding to hold off from seeking the nomination in 2012.

In fact, next time out I think the battle for the Republican nomination will be the misfits of the party. Bland, boring candidates like Mitt Romney will fight fruitlessly against the raving Christian lunatics like Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin. The people most likely to be the next Republican President will hold out until 2016 – Jindal included.

See, Obama is going to be tough to beat in 2012. Regardless of your views on his policies and politics (and I am far from convinced by Obama), I think you have to concede that he is acting with a confidence and gravitas that befits his office. After 8 years of having a slack-jawed ignorant twat in the office, there is someone who looks the part now in the White House. Plus, Obama has the massive advantage of being the incumbent in 2012. Just as Hillary Clinton held off running against Bush in 2004 because he looked hard to beat, I reckon the credible Republicans will hold off until Obama is forced to step down in 2016.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we see Palin taking on Obama in 2012. And also see Palin getting destroyed in the polls. Then, after the Obama landslide, the likes of Jindal will come to lead the party, and take it back to a position of centrist credibility in time for 2016.

What if... McCain had been elected President in 2000 rather than Bush?

Today is a remarkable day for a remarkable man: today, Barack Obama will become the first black President of the United States of America. But it is also an important day for another remarkable man – for today, after eight turbulent years in power, President John McCain is standing down and heading back to Arizona.

McCain is a man who has both powerfully and controversially dominated the political landscape of the USA for the best part of a decade. Despite governing resolutely from the centre ground, his out-spoken views and his professed desire to govern from both the head and the heart have meant that, for everyone lamenting the end of his time in the White House, there is another person celebrating – not least those in his own party.

And, lest we forget, it could all have been so different. Had McCain not won the South Carolina primary in 2000, then he would have struggled to win the Republican nomination from the favourite candidate, George W Bush. And winning that nomination enabled him to fight an energetic Presidential campaign later in 2000, and snatch victory from the heir apparent to the White House, Al Gore. History would be very different had Gore, or even Bush, become President.

McCain’s success in winning the Presidential Election in 2000 should not be under-estimated. Bush Junior had the firepower, the money, and the family name to win the nomination. Bush’s campaign also had no compunction about fighting dirty. Yet McCain, with his desire for “straight-talking” and his obvious relish for the underdog status, captured the public imagination, and with it, the Republican nomination.

Even then, his victory at the national polls looked far from assured. He trailed Gore in the polls, despite uniting the party by making George W Bush his running mate. However, his honest and enthusiastic manner, which undermined the cruel jibes about his age, meant he soon started to win over the nation as a whole. His real triumph came in the debates, when his warm, open speaking style brought into sharp relief the much more stilted and intellectual approach of Al Gore. It is one of the lasting debates surrounding the 2000 Presidential Election – whether McCain won it or whether Gore’s lacklustre campaign lost it. But the remarkable political rise of John McCain was completed on Election Night when Florida fell into his column and with it, the White House.

The First Term

Yet, once president-elect, McCain seemed to lose his way and with it his identity. He remained resolutely in the centre ground, leading many in his own party to comment that they seemed to have accidentally elected Al Gore rather than a Republican. His Inauguration speech in 2001 was poor, filled with truisms about more honest government delivered by a old man visibly shivering against the cold. During his first few months in power, the now President McCain seemed to be lost, offering few initiatives and appearing to treat water in the White House. Some wondered whether McCain was actually up to the job of President.

All this changed in September 11th, 2001. McCain’s angry, defiant call to arms after the planes hit the Twin Towers and the Pentagon, as well as the plane brought down by its own passengers, showed a confident leader rising to the challenge. Despite the advice of the Secret Service, and the danger involved in going into a disaster area, he was in New York City within hours of the atrocity – talking to survivors, and making sure that the rescue attempts and investigations were being co-ordinated effectively across the country.

After it became clear that Al-Qaeda was behind the attacks, McCain was quick to work on a response. Through diplomacy he was able to get troops on the ground in Pakistan – with the blessing of the government of Pakistan. However, the Taliban regime in Afghanistan proved to be more difficult, and as they refused to hand over bin Laden, McCain worked hard to bring together an international coalition to deal with the problem. With UN backing, McCain ordered the attack on Afghanistan.

The Afghan war is probably the most divisive part of McCain’s legacy. Whilst the out-going President remains defiant over his decision to invade, US troops are still fighting in Afghanistan, with no sign of bin Laden or an end to hostilities. For every patriot who praises McCain for his tough stance in Afghanistan, there is a peace lover calling for the return of US troops. McCain has gone on record as arguing that the death toll could have been worse, had he listened to the hawks in his administration. Nonetheless, the US occupation of Afghanistan remains a poisoned chalice for incoming President Obama.

McCain also showed himself to be a tough fighter when it came national politics as well. He was scathing of the failings of both the CIA and the FBI in the run up to 9/11, eventually replacing the directors of both. He also fought hard to introduce new accounting laws after the collapse of both Enron and Worldcom, controversially (in his own party) putting big business on warning that any fraudulent directors would be prosecuted to the full extent of the law.

Perhaps the most surprising, and interesting, aspects of McCain’s first term in power was the relationship he had with his Vice-President, George W Bush. Bush was a hawk within the administration, and on several occasions broke ranks with his President to call for a War on Terror on Iraq. McCain steadfastly refused to countenance such a step, arguing that whilst there was some evidence that Iraq was sponsoring terrorism and that a regime change would be a good thing, there was no real evidence that Iraq was connected with 9/11. As the first term went on, though, it became very clear that there was little love lost between President and Vice-President.

As the 2004 election drew near, few thought that there was any real danger of McCain not securing the nomination again. And, indeed, that proved to be the case. However, as soon as it became clear that he would not be opposed in running for the nomination, McCain announced that he would not be running again with George W Bush. The Bush camp was enraged, but it was too late for them to oppose McCain. However the move threatened to destroy Republican unity just before an election. Some speculated that McCain was about to announce he would run as an independent. However, the President had another trick up his sleeve. He announced Joe Lieberman, Gore’s Vice-Presidential candidate, as his running mate. The selection electrified the political seen as it was genuinely a cross-party ticket. It also proved to be a strong political move for the election, despite the problems it created in his second term. It stole all the glory from John Kerry’s campaign, and redefined the McCain administration as centre-of-the-road politically. Whilst McCain may have lost some votes from the Christian Right of the party, he gained them from the Democratic Party.

In the event, the 2004 election was something of an anti-climax. John Kerry never stopped training in the polls, and as one of his team pointed out, he was simply the wrong candidate in the wrong place at the wrong time: “We were running a Vietnam war hero against an even more heroic Vet, running an experienced Senator against an experienced Senator and President, running with a centrist candidate against a President who had taken on one of our own as his candidate.” In the end, the result was a foregone conclusion: McCain won in a landslide.

The Second Term

McCain won further plaudits after Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans. He put troops on the ground and ploughed money into the rescue efforts, leading some to claim that he saved hundreds of lives. His independent investigation into the disaster recommended millions should be ploughed into flood defences; something which McCain was happy to do. But despite his successes here, his Presidency was increasingly being undermined by his own party.

Many were unhappy with his decision to dump Bush and take on a Democrat; this was not helped by several on-the-record, scathing remarks about various Republicans suffering corruption scandals. Events reached a head when a group of Republicans attempted to have McCain expelled from the Republican party. McCain laughed off the attempts and they came to nothing. Nonetheless, McCain appeared increasingly isolated from his own party, and declined to do too much active campaigning for his own party in the 2006 mid-terms. The loss of the control of Congress to the Democrats hurt McCain, and he became increasingly reliant on his Vice-President to liase with the Congress.

He was also hurt as the economy began to freefall. In contrast to his prompt action in the face of both 9/11 and Hurricane Katrina, McCain seemed to struggle to find a path to deal with the economy. He was also hurt by Lieberman’s decision not to stand, and watched with mounting horror as the Republican party fell into a bitter fight between the moderates under Mitt Romney and the Republican Christian Right under Mike Huckabee. In the end, the moderates won through, with Romney as the Republican candidate and little-known Alaskan governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. But as the economy collapsed, and leading a party torn apart by infighting, a resurgent Democratic Party, headed by Barack Obama, won the election comfortably.

In his most recent interview, McCain candidly described his years in the White House as “six of the most challenging, and rewarding years you could ever hope for, followed by two of the most challenging and depressing you could ever dream of.” He appears now as a tired man, looking forward to retirement. Time will tell how his time as President is truly judged; but he leaves behind a mixed legacy and has lead the USA through a roller coaster eight years.

The Future of the Republicans

From an old edition of The Economist, just before the last US election:

"Conservative America also needs to recover its vim. Somehow Ronald Reagan's party of western individualism and limited government has ended up not just increasing the size of the state but turning it into a tool of southern-friend moralism."

Couldn't agree more. And if the Republican party really wants to get back on its feet, then it needs to look for a genuine, reforming character within its ranks to energise both moderate and devoted Republicans. The likes of Palin and Huckabee simply won't cut it. They will appeal only to the loony Christian elements of the party, and those sort of candidates will alienate as many centrist voters as they will energise the Christian fundamentalists so well deployed by Karl Rove.

A genuine, reforming Republican leader is required - someone who wants to strip back the state, cut taxes, and instincively follow the limited government model followed by some Republicans. Rather than pandering to the limited outlooks of the Christian Right.

The Republicans tried Christian fundamentalism in the form of George W Bush. It broke the party, helped to destroy the candidacy of the far more moderate John McCain and did substantial damage to the country. The last thing they need to do is go further down the root of fundamentalism. The Republican future lies in pursuing a very different agenda.

Election 2008: Dead Time

From the outside looking in, this is the dull time in any US Presidential contest. The dead time. The nominees will need millions, if not billions, of dollars to call each other a slag on a national scale, and that money doesn’t just magically appear, you know. They’ll be doing the hard graft – fund-raising chicken dinners, delivering the same stump speech to self-important businessmen and local dignitaries across the US. Both McCain and Obama will be crawling up their potential donors’ arseholes in an attempt to raid the wallets, at the same time as secretly hating those donors with a passion. But from the outside, this fund raising dead time is just repetitive and boring.

And yet, this time in any presidential contest fascinates me. Because you can start to imagine what is happening behind the scenes.

Both sides will now be thinking exactly how they will fight the coming General Election. I imagine Team McCain are thinking about the best strategies to “take the fight to Obama”. I can see John McCain raging at his subordinates, demanding to know why they can’t smear Obama’s Vietnam record. And I can imagine those sub-ordinates explaining in a gentle, calm way that Obama was a toddler during the height of the Vietnam war, and no matter what McCain might think, people still don’t think toddlers should fight at the front line. And then Team Obama will be sat around, no doubt pondering whether they will actually be able to do the unthinkable, and run a presidential campaign without committed to any policies. At all. Ever.

What is even more fun is thinking about all those different politicians from the same parties who have been slating each other through an incredibly cannibalistic primary season making friends again. The BBC carries this story about Obama making friends again with Bill Clinton:

An Obama spokesman said the two had had a "terrific" conversation during a 20-minute telephone call.

Yes, and one can imagine that after that 20 minute phone call both men simultaneously got off the phone and muttered “fuck you very much”. They’re not friends. They hate each other. Any claims that they are friends are about as credible as the Cabinet here in the UK saying they support Gordon Brown – a big old bag of bollocks.

But the reason why they are suddenly friends is the final reason why this is such a fun time for the US Presidential Election. Because, behind the scenes, the negotiations, debates and arguments are happening about who should take the Vice-Presidential roles on the two tickets. No doubt Hillary Clinton is absolutely convinced that she will be the Veep for Obama – hence Bill trying to make friends with Obama again. And I am equally sure that the Obama HQ has regular moments of despair, as the wonder what the hell they are going to do with that “Hillary problem”. Over in the Republican camp, the mentalist Mike Huckabee is probably waiting for the call from McCain to ask him to become Vice-President – after all, in Huckabee’s demented little world, he is God’s own politician. In the meantime, any Republican politician who lives even slightly in the real world is wondering whether they will get the nod from the decrepit McCain. I mean, for the love of fuck, surely McCain won’t choose to run with the man who took a phone call from God at a fucking fund raiser?

These are the interesting times, people, if you picture the unreported conversations going on behind the scenes. I imagine it all as one of the more interesting episodes of The West Wing, albeit with less piety and more swearing. And it won’t last forever. Soon we’ll have the nominating conventions, and then the endless bitching of the actual Presidential campaign.

Dear Hillary, here's £1.3 million, with love, from Elton

Elton John has made some money for Hillary Clinton. A lot of money, in fact. £1.3 million. Wish he would do a fundraiser for me. I could do with £1.3 million. And I would promise not to waste it on a failing presidential campaign.

Still, Elton has been quite passionate in his support of Clinton. He’s almost completely wrong in his reasons for being passionate about her, but at least he is passionate. He says:

"There is no-one more qualified to lead America."

Maybe, in Elton’s humble opinion. Of course, I can’t think of many people less qualified to talk about who is qualified to lead America that Elton John. Homer Simpson, maybe. But Homer is a fictional ejit, so could never be more qualified than Elton. Because at least Elton isn’t fictional.

The BBC also notes that Elton thinks he knows why Clinton is behind in the race:

He also accused people who think Mrs Clinton is an unsuitable candidate of being sexist. "I'm amazed by the misogynistic attitudes of some of the people in this country, and I say to hell with them," he told the crowd.

Hmmm. Not entirely sure it is misogyny that is costing Mrs Clinton the campaign. Sure, there will be some misogynistic voters, but I think a lot of the votes have gone against Hillary because people just plain don’t like her. For what it is worth, I reckon she is the best candidate who has run this time out. She’s not hinted at attacking Pakistan, like Obama; she doesn’t sing “Bomb Iran” like McCain; and she is not a total sky fairy worshipping theocratic nutjob like Huckabee. But she has missed the point that, at least on some levels, elections are popularity contests. So there is nothing wrong with being popular with the voters.

Rather than with ageing piano playing rock stars.

The Times has an article on why the Democrats must choose Hillary Clinton for their nominee. Nothing like a few tentative victories to bring out the supporters, is there?

This is one of the problems I have with the US election. It has been so unpredictable that it practically cries out for the sort of mindless speculation and band-wagon jumping that the media excels at. Christ knows what journalists will do once this election is over. Think of all the column inches to fill...

Except, we know what they will fill them with. Because both the joy and the curse of the US election system is we know that there will be another Presidential election in 2012. And as soon as the media has to stop speculating about the 2008 election, they will move on to 2012. All the talk will be about another Romney bid. Or maybe Huckabee trying again. Or whoever eventually loses the Democratic contest trying again. And what it would have been like if the loser of the 2012 election had actually won. The speculation, and the counterfactuals won't stop. The dates will change; the content of the articles won't.

So a special prize for the first reader of this blog who flags an article about the 2012 Presidential Election to me. The cash value of the prize won't be more than 0.0001p, and I make no guarantee that I will even remember I even created this challenge. But it can't be too long before someone, somewhere, sees that first article about the 2012 election.

It is like seeing the first ever Christmas decoration in September, or the first Easter Egg in January. Exciting, depressing, and utterly premature - all at the same time.

Election 2008: McCain Wins in the Republican and Democratic Primaries

McCain has won the Republican nomination for President! I mean, like, wow. We actually have a nominee for President. Mind you, it has taken him long enough. After all, he first ran for President in 2000. Eight years is a loooonnnngg run for the Presidency. I guess that’s what happens when you get old. Had he run in 1988 or 1992, he might have got the nomination in just months. Now he’s an older man, it just takes longer to do everything, what with the aches and pains, and just not being able to walk as fast as he once could. Shame he didn’t win in 2000 – he might have saved us from the terrible Bush Junior Administrations. But fair play – he’s won now. Well done, John. I’m proud.

I’m particularly pleased that he has knocked the ludicrous Mike Huckabee from the race. Huckabee’s campaign strategy, of waiting for a fricking miracle, has been proven to be a sack of shit. I’d love to run up to Huckabee now and scream in his face "Where’s your God now, Huckabee? Where’s your God now? You cunt!" Furthermore, the fact that he has dropped out of the race means that he no longer has Secret Service Protection, which is good for me as I would be less likely to be shot in the face for screaming at a would-be President like a demented loon.

The Democrats are still fighting, though, after Clinton managed to resurrect her Presidential bid like Frankenstein in a shitty Hammer Horror sequel. If I was Obama, I’d be really pissed off about now. The Democrats are flirting with him like a dog on heat, only to reject whenever he seems poised to deliver that knock-out blow. I’d be angry and frustrated if I was him, and irritated like hell at Clinton.

Which may yet be Clinton’s strategy – to irritate Obama out of the race. Never to quite kick his ass, but to deny him victory for long enough to make him leave the race in a frustrated huff. It may not be the best strategy, but it pisses all over Huckabee’s.

But the continuation of the Democratic bitchfest means that McCain is the clear winner of both the Democrat and Republican primaries yesterday. He is now able to concentrate on attacking the Democrats and planning his General Election campaign. He must be chuckling with laughter, and rubbing his podgy little belly as he watched Obama and Clinton rip into each other like hysterical lovers on The Jeremy Kyle Show. They could be making his passage to the White House really easy…

Election 2008: Well, the book should be interesting.

Another day, another crucial step in the battle for the US Presidency. Now I've got a real, almost anal, interest in US Politics (a brief look at my bookshelf shows this beyond reasonable doubt) but I'm struggling with this Presidential election - and we are still in the primary season.

Sure, stuff is happening, and each new primary looks to be more decisive than the last. The problem is that stuff is happening really, really slowly. And that decisive blow is not being unleashed by either the Democrat or Republican candidates. This does not feel like a race for the White House. It feels more like an arduous route march to the White House, with regular breaks for the candidates to talk shite and snipe at each other. As one of my colleagues remarked today - history is being made over in the US. But it would be great if they could hurry the fuck up.

I understand the ins and outs of the US election process - I respect why it is so elongated, even if I don't think it is a good system. But this election seems to be just too long. Go Obama! Go McCain! Go Clinton! Go Paul! Hell, even Go Huckabee! Fuck, I'm tempted to support anyone who can deliver a knockout punch in their respective primaries and start the proper General Election campaign. Just to move things forward. People who complain about length of the 6 week general election campaigns in this country should be forced to watch every single contest in the US Presidential Election cycle until their brains leak from their ears, mushed to a fine pate by rampaging boredom.

The hacks over in the US must be feeling a far worse sense of fatigue. Can you imagine being on Hillary Clinton's plane right now? Barely aware of what state you are on, what you are meant to be doing here, and why this woman keeps on shrieking nonsense at you? Or on Obama's plane, suffocating in the air of paranoid smugness that oozes from every pore Obama has? How about on McCain's plane, where you must be practically brain dead from all the stories about heroism and earnest, centrist decision making? Or - hell upon hell - on Huckabee's plane, where the candidate is probably flying so high towards the heavens in the vain hope that he can fellate God? And knowing that if you object, he's a-gonna burn you. Regardless of the impact in the integrity of the aircraft. Whatever plane you were on, you must be feeling utterly battered and weary.

In fact, most journalists will probably be sticking to the campaign in the hope that they can write a book about it when it is all over. The problem is that the end - in distant November - is not so much out of sight, but rather invisible. An efficient journalist - or at least one concerned for their own mental health - would be better placed to go into hibernation for the next few months, resurfacing just before America actually votes. You could catch up with everything (basically candidates bitching at each other) via news archives and various video diaries, before sitting up for the whole of election night, starting your book in the morning.

See, this Presidential Election campaign will make a great book. Hell, with everything condensed into a two hour run time, it has the potential to be an awesome film. But both the book and the film will work because they can excise some much of the inconclusive pissing around we are currently witnessing. The 2008 campaign in a two hour film - fast moving and breezy. In reality the 2008 campaign has been played out since 2004 - and is jaw-droppingly tedious.

Mr E reckons he will be staying in all night to watch the results come in. I say good luck to him. I'll be off to bed at around 10:30pm. I'll catch up with the results on my radio, in the shower in the morning, when I can get all the details in a two minute bulletin.

Election 2008: Turban-gate

The Democrat race has been thrown into confusion and anger by this shocking photo:


I mean, seriously, Jesus, wow. Can I be the first to say... who fucking cares?

This is the very definition of a non-story, or a storm in a tea cup. The only people who are going to change their votes based on the above photo are the sort of inbred morons who, even if they can get their thick, webbed fingers around a pencil to vote, wouldn't put their shaky "x" in the Democrat's box anyway. This shouldn't matter.

And yet, it does.

Only yesterday I noted that the Democrats would have to work really hard to fuck up this election. But with the two Democrat candidates sniping at each other over this photo, I can't help but think that John McCain* is laughing himself silly over this story. The Democrats have their best chance of winning the White House since Bob Dole ran a campaign back in 1996 that consisted largely of resigning from the Senate and falling off a stage, and they are responding by tearing themselves apart.

If I was Democrat, I would be despairing. The Democratic contenders for the nomination have lost themselves in a trivial civil war, whilst the real enemy sleepwalks his way to his own party's nomination.

*Whose only real opponent is not taken seriously by anyone any more. Not even by Huckabee himself, I reckon.

ABH: Hangdog

Mike Huckabee is continuing with his bid to win the Republican Presidential Nomination. However, as the Telegraph notes, his campaign is, well, fucked:

"Even if he were to win every remaining primary with more than 50 per cent of the vote he would still not catch up."

Of course, Huckabee won’t break the habit of a lifetime and let reality impact in his demented existence:

"Mr Huckabee, a Baptist minister and religious studies graduate, said at the weekend: "I didn't major in maths. I majored in miracles and I still believe in them.""

Twat.

The reasons why Huckabee is still in the race is that he is running for the vice-presidential slot. And, as I’ve noted before, Huckabee a heartbeat away from the presidency does not bear thinking about.

But it is not just his unshakeable believe in the invisible, ficticious sky fairy that bothers me. There is evidence that, beneath the ersatz charm, folksy faith and corny jokes, there lurks a darker, more corrupt side to Huckabee. Take this story, of what happened to a police chief who was asked to look at the accusation that Huckabee’s son hanged a dog:

"But John Bailey, then the director of Arkansas's state police, tells NEWSWEEK that Governor Huckabee's chief of staff and personal lawyer both leaned on him to write a letter officially denying the local prosecutor's request. Bailey, a career officer who had been appointed chief by Huckabee's Democratic predecessor, said he viewed the lawyer's intervention as improper and terminated the conversation. Seven months later, he was called into Huckabee's office and fired. "I've lost confidence in your ability to do your job," Bailey says Huckabee told him. One reason Huckabee cited was "I couldn't get you to help me with my son when I had that problem," according to Bailey. "Without question, [Huckabee] was making a conscious attempt to keep the state police from investigating his son," says I. C. Smith, the former FBI chief in Little Rock, who worked closely with Bailey and called him a "courageous" and "very solid" professional."

Aside from noting that David Huckabee is not exactly blessed with the best looking face, there is something really unsavoury here. Not about the hanging of the dog – that is a pathetic, stupid act, but that was David Huckabee rather than Mike. No, the problem here lies with Huckabee approaching the police to effectively pervert the course of justice, and then sacking the police officer concerned, citing the non-compliance over the incident with his son.

Yes, this is small fry compared to the sort of things that a President would have to deal with. But that is precisely the point. This doesn’t really matter as it is a small, parochial incident. However, the bullying and disregard for the law would be far worse in someone who has to defend and protect the constitution of the US. It is not just his beliefs that could damage the USA, it is also his attitudes.

So I say again to McCain and to the thousands of people who are still voting Huckabee in the US – ABH. Anybody But Huckabee.

ABH: Anyone But Huckabee

Mitt Romney has suspended his campaign for the White House. Interesting language, that – "suspended". Almost as if he is giving it all a short break, and will resume fighting for the nomination sometime next week. Anyway, he’s out of it. What did for Mitt? Probably his strangely egregious campaign (nicely spoofed here) which consisted of funding adverts from his own fortune that attacked his opponents without really advocating himself.

We are now in the curious, and worrying, position where there are only two people in the Republican primary season who have won states – John McCain, and Mike Huckabee. It is the latter name that is so worrying. Now, I’ve banged on enough about the problems of Huckabee, and why he appears to me to be utterly demented. But the terrifying thing is he still has a shot at the presidency, and (failing that) the vice-presidency.

So I’m starting a campaign: ABH*. Anybody But Huckabee.

The objectives are simple – to send two key messages across the Atlantic:

1. To the Republicans – stop voting for Huckabee. Seriously, just stop it! It is not big, it is not clever, and if Huckabee ever got into the White House, then the US will have no friends.

2. To John McCain – It may be politically expedient to offer a space on your ticket to Huckabee, but the fact that it is politically expedient doesn't make it right. Stand by your principles (I'm assuming he has some, I know) and consign this daft, ignorant man to the dustbin of history.

Join me, friends, enemies, Americans - join me in trying to stop this man who makes Mahmoud Ahmadinejad looks like a sensible moderate getting anywhere near the White House.

*Which can also stand for Actual Bodily Harm, natch.

Running Mates

Tomorrow, the primary season in the US Presidential Election goes into overdrive. We have Super Tuesday, and we could see the nominations sewn up by Wednesday morning. The Democrat race is closer than the Republican one, but nonetheless we could know who the two candidates are for the White House within the next few days.

Which means that the race for the White House will calm down for a while, as the candidates disappear into a thousand fund raising dinners, to ready themselves for the main campaign after the nominating conventions in the summer. However, there will be one big news story between knowing who the nominee is and the campaign for the White House starting in earnest. That’ll be the announcement of the vice-presidential candidates for both parties.

Regardless of who ends up with the Democratic nomination, I rather think that their rival candidate will end up with the winner on the ticket. Obama/Clinton (or vice versa) remains a potent combination – and a good mix of experience and "hope" (which Americans seem to think it crucial, even if the candidate concerned feels no need to qualify it in any meaningful way). And choosing one of these should be no problem as the other Democrat contender for President, John Edwards, appears to have no interest in running for veep again.*

The Republican contest is more interesting. McCain, barring a massive electoral upset tomorrow, will be the Republican nominee for President. The endorsements are behind him, and he seems to have the momentum. But when it comes to choosing the second place on his ballot, he has a lot of options. Giuliani could be rewarded for his loyalty in the face of defeat. Huckabee would help deliver the Bible Belt. And Romney (if things haven’t got too bitter over the course of the primaries) might help unite the party. However choosing one over another is always going to be controversial, and could cause further rupture in the party.

But there is another reason why this choice will be crucial to McCain and his bid for the White House. Normally, the job of Vice-President is, as one holder of the office stated, not worth a pitcher of warm piss.** However, if McCain becomes President, the Vice-President could conceivably become President during the next administration. The simple fact is that McCain is an old man. And he is an old man who has been seriously ill. It is not inconceivable that McCain might die in office simply from old age. And it is even more likely that at some point he will have to undergo some sort of incapacitating medical procedure, which may mean invoking the 25th Amendment. After all, this has happened under Bush, who is younger and comparatively more healthy. And if that amendment is invoked, whoever is Vice-President steps up to the highest office in the land.

It is a cliché to say that the Vice-President is a heartbeat away from the Presidency, but like many a cliché it happens to be true. Which means McCain should devote a lot of thought to who he makes his vice-presidential candidate. The selection above is not great, but there is one name that stands out as a definite no.

The demented Mike Huckabee being a heartbeat away from the Presidency? Doesn’t bear thinking about.

*Probably because of the overwhelming sense of déjà vu that it would give him.
** Sometimes quoted as spit. Unsurprisingly, I go for the more profane version.

And so, they start to fall.

Fred Thompson has withdrawn from the race for President. Who he, you might ask? Well, he's the Republican candidate who has made bugger all impact on the Republican primaries. No, no, not Giuliani - the other one. You know who I mean. At least you will if you have ever watched Law and Order.

Who'll be next? Will Giuliani drop out if the Republican voters continue to ignore him, even in the states where he has bothered to campaign? What about Huckabee? After all, his bandwagon has stalled somewhat since Iowa. On the other side of the political divide, what about Edwards? Is he ready yet to give up on his second bid to become President? Or is accepting that he is terminally bland to much for him to take at the moment, at least until other states reject him?

This is the joy of watching a US primary season - watching the candidates fall, one by one. It is only when the field is reduced to two that things slow down and become truly dull. So relish the election whilst the field of candidates is broad. Because, as Thompson's drop out has shown, it won't last for ever.

New Hampshire, 2008

At the end of my last post on the US primary season I noted that "things could still change". I wish I had made more of this to accentuate my wisdom. Because things have changed.

Of course, things could change again. But I am relatively happy that the ludicrous Mike Huckabee and the Pakistan baiting Obama have been kicked, as Cartman would say, "square in the nuts." As a bonus, Mitt "Moron" Romney looks increasingly fucked. And not in the good way.
Sure, the alternative choices - a decrepit old man and a screaming harridan - are not exactly great, but at least they have some valuble experience and don't make policy decisions based exclusively on the supposed teachings of a fictional being.

No doubt people will get bored of me saying this, just as they will rapidly grow bored of the interminable US election, but this is not the election for the US to elect a Christian fundamentalist or an inexperienced senator, however great the narrative around that candidate is. As dull as it sounds, the US needs a safe pair of hands. Be it Clinton, be it McCain, be it Guiliani. None of those candidates are perfect, but they are one fuck of a lot better than the bottom of the barrel.