Running Mates

Tomorrow, the primary season in the US Presidential Election goes into overdrive. We have Super Tuesday, and we could see the nominations sewn up by Wednesday morning. The Democrat race is closer than the Republican one, but nonetheless we could know who the two candidates are for the White House within the next few days.

Which means that the race for the White House will calm down for a while, as the candidates disappear into a thousand fund raising dinners, to ready themselves for the main campaign after the nominating conventions in the summer. However, there will be one big news story between knowing who the nominee is and the campaign for the White House starting in earnest. That’ll be the announcement of the vice-presidential candidates for both parties.

Regardless of who ends up with the Democratic nomination, I rather think that their rival candidate will end up with the winner on the ticket. Obama/Clinton (or vice versa) remains a potent combination – and a good mix of experience and "hope" (which Americans seem to think it crucial, even if the candidate concerned feels no need to qualify it in any meaningful way). And choosing one of these should be no problem as the other Democrat contender for President, John Edwards, appears to have no interest in running for veep again.*

The Republican contest is more interesting. McCain, barring a massive electoral upset tomorrow, will be the Republican nominee for President. The endorsements are behind him, and he seems to have the momentum. But when it comes to choosing the second place on his ballot, he has a lot of options. Giuliani could be rewarded for his loyalty in the face of defeat. Huckabee would help deliver the Bible Belt. And Romney (if things haven’t got too bitter over the course of the primaries) might help unite the party. However choosing one over another is always going to be controversial, and could cause further rupture in the party.

But there is another reason why this choice will be crucial to McCain and his bid for the White House. Normally, the job of Vice-President is, as one holder of the office stated, not worth a pitcher of warm piss.** However, if McCain becomes President, the Vice-President could conceivably become President during the next administration. The simple fact is that McCain is an old man. And he is an old man who has been seriously ill. It is not inconceivable that McCain might die in office simply from old age. And it is even more likely that at some point he will have to undergo some sort of incapacitating medical procedure, which may mean invoking the 25th Amendment. After all, this has happened under Bush, who is younger and comparatively more healthy. And if that amendment is invoked, whoever is Vice-President steps up to the highest office in the land.

It is a cliché to say that the Vice-President is a heartbeat away from the Presidency, but like many a cliché it happens to be true. Which means McCain should devote a lot of thought to who he makes his vice-presidential candidate. The selection above is not great, but there is one name that stands out as a definite no.

The demented Mike Huckabee being a heartbeat away from the Presidency? Doesn’t bear thinking about.

*Probably because of the overwhelming sense of déjà vu that it would give him.
** Sometimes quoted as spit. Unsurprisingly, I go for the more profane version.