Miliband Minor and the polls

No doubt Labour types throughout the country will take heart from this poll result - after all, they're ahead for the first time in ages. But it will be a desperate sort of hope; the sort of uplift that comes from people used for so long to being unpopular. But it is too early - far too early - to talk of any Labour renaissance.

Part of the reason is almost all parties get a boost when they've chosen a new leader. And almost all parties get a boost in the polls when they've had their conference. I mean, for the last week there has been almost blanket news coverage of the Labour leadership race and their lacklustre conference. Of course they're going to go up in the polls - they've been in the news nearly constantly for the best part of a week.

What should be worrying them, though, is the response to their new leader from the public. Because that response has been muted at best. Let's take a look at what the numbers say:

Labour's new leader has so far had little chance to make an impression. Among definite Labour voters only 52% say Ed Miliband would make the best prime minister of the three party leaders while 24% name David Cameron. By contrast, 89% of Conservatives pick Cameron. More Lib Dem voters also back Cameron as a competent prime minister than back Clegg. Among all voters, 20% think Ed Miliband would make the most competent prime minister, compared with 47% who say Cameron and 10% Clegg.

Now, these figures are not good news for Miliband. Despite having been elected in a blaze of publicity and despite having made a speech that has been endlessly dissected and replayed in the media, he's still struggling to convince his own voters that he's the best man to be Prime Minister - and among all voters he isn't even close to Cameron. Yes, you can argue that he needs more time to make an impression - and that Cameron wasn't seen as credible as he is now when he first became Tory leader. But these caveats miss some crucial points - when Cameron was elected, he was made leader of a party hungry for power. His main rival for the leadership joined his Shadow Cabinet. The party united behind him. By contrast, 48% of Labour voters think someone other than Miliband Minor would make the best PM and his main rival - his own brother - has gone to the backbenches rather than serve the new leader. Sure, it's early days for Miliband Minor, but this is also his honeymoon period. And he's not getting the sort of poll boost normally afforded to new leaders. This will be his only honeymoon period with the public, and it hasn't started well.

How to fuck up a poll result, by the Guardian

According to The Guardian:

Gordon Brown is regarded highly for his leadership abilities and yet continues to suffer in wider popular opinion, raising interesting questions around what matters most to voters.

Or, perhaps, the interesting questions are around what The Guardian considers to be interesting questions about the voters and what constitutes leadership abilities. Let's take a look at these questions, culled from a poll published by the newspaper in question:

Q: In choosing between Gordon Brown, David Cameron or Nick Clegg, who do you think...

Because they are the only party leaders in this country, aren't they? Oh, wait...

...would be best in a crisis?

The majority of government is not about being best in a crisis, it's about being able to manage a country effectively. Expecting a leader to be great in a crisis would be a bit like making a fireman the CEO of a supermarket chain, just in case a store somewhere one day catches fire. It might happen, but is not a certainty. So let's consider other criteria as well then, eh?

...is most capable?

At what? Being an incumbent Prime Minister? Well, that would be Gordon Brown. At being the incumbent Labour leader? Again, Gordon Brown. At being Gordon Brown? I'm guessing that would be, well, Gordon Brown. At not being a total fucking wanker? Well, that would be anyone other than Gordon Brown. See, this question would be more meaningful if it was just a little bit narrower.

...best understands world problems?

Well, Gordon Brown might be the best at understanding world problems, but then again he has been surrounded by international policy experts since he became Prime Minister. Clegg or Cameron could be just as informed, and therefore good at understanding, if they had the same access to Britain's civil service. And besides, understanding a problem is not synonymous with being able to solve that problem. Had the poll asked who would be best to solve world problems, then they might have got a very different answer. Because Gordon Brown could understand every world problem under the sun, but because he is a total and absolute twat, he'd still be unable to solve those problems.

So I'll say this to the Good Ship Guardian and all who sail in her - you want to know why your poll results are shit? It's because your questions are shit. You bunch of dickheads.

Labour Poll Boost: They Should Enjoy It Whilst They Can

Via Boatang & Demetriou, a poll that is apparently good news for the Labour party:

Labour's hopes of avoiding a general election rout at the hands of David Cameron's Tories will be boosted today as a new poll shows a sharp fall in the Conservatives' lead, raising the possibility of a hung parliament.

The Ipsos MORI survey for the Observer, which will cause alarm in Tory ranks and boost Labour's hope of performing a "great escape", puts the Conservatives on 37%, only six points ahead of Labour on 31%. The Liberal Democrats are on 17%.

First things first, they are still six points behind the Tories in their best poll result since last December. If the election result was held right here, right now, based on these poll results then Labour would still lose. If that is something to celebrate, then things have been really bad for the Labour party. But things get even worse when you consider that in 2005, the Labour party won a third election victory in a row and looked like the dominant force in British electoral politics. Now, they are celebrating the fact that they are still destined for election defeat, except by a slightly slimmer margin. Based on what is probably a rogue poll.

Yes, this poll is a triumph for the Labour party. But rather like their recent by-election victory, it may prove to be a pyrrhic victory on the morning after the next General Election and they are returning to the Opposition benches for what could be a long period of time.

He's Back!

So, Gordon Brown is back from his holiday.

*Shudders*

The BBC notes that:

"...the prime minister could be forgiven for having a worse case of post holiday blues than the rest of us. His in-tray is bleak."

Good. Fucking good. The guy is a fucking penis of the highest order, I want his in-tray to be bleak. Hell, I want every part of his life to be bleak. Because he is a morose, misanthropic, incompetent, failed, glowering shit bag of a man. This country would have been better off electing the fucking Child Catcher as Prime Minister. Oh, except, hang on - we didn't elect Brown. He decided he wanted the job and therefore stole it from the elected Prime Minister.

However, this comment about the poll ratings made me smile and think:

"(The polls) might have nudged up by one point since last month, but it's Labour's worst rating in August since the 1980s."

So, with the Prime Minister on holiday, the poll ratings go *up*.

But I don't think this would be just for the PM. I'd imagine the popularity of politicians in general will go up when they are on holiday. And not actually doing anything. Sure, the majority of people will still hate them because they live a life of luxury at the expense of others, but at least we don't have to sit through them foisting patronising, intrusive and unpleasant laws on us whilst they are sunning their flabby bodies on the beach.

Parliament being in recess is a holiday not just for the parasites, but also for the politically aware. I've enjoyed the past few weeks, when there have been no new crass bills to rant against. But mark my words, the rage and indignation will rise again as soon as the MPs get back to their busy work of trying to justify their frankly massive costs through commenting on and trying to legislate in areas they are not qualified in and do not understand. We've got another Brown relaunch coming; make no mistake, it will involve a whole host of crappy crap. No doubt there will be plans to save the nation through reducing pie-eating. And installing cameras in every toilet bowl in the country, to guarantee hygiene or something. We can expect another all out assault on booze, cigarettes, fatty foods - pretty much on everything. And the only thing the government won't touch is the economy. And why would they? After all, the economy is only in freefall!

Brown et al will always be more popular when they are on holiday. I can't be alone in thinking that they should see what the polls are telling them, and take an extended holiday. It's recommend 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and 365 days a year for them. It would make them more popular and do a hell of a lot less damage to this country if they simply never came back to work.

Brown v. Miliband

Apparently, Labour's problems are just down to Gordon Brown:

When people were asked to choose the best prime minister between Cameron and Brown, or Cameron and Miliband, the Tory leader beat both men by the same 21% margin.

To anyone with half a brain cell, this should be obvious. Brown is not the problem, he just acts as a figurehead of the problem and a lightning rod for the rage people now feel towards Labour. The reason why people prefer Cameron is because they are utterly sick of Nu Labour. Sick to death of over a decade of broken promises, empty spin, preening ministers, endemic corruption, gross incompetence and blatant theiving from the people by the treasury. Brown isn't the problem; he just personifies it at the moment. And whoever you put at the head of the Labour government will come to personify that problem. People are tired of the arrogant, patronising and utterly crass Nu Labour.

Supporters of other possible contenders in a Labour leadership contest, including Harriet Harman, Alan Johnson and Jon Cruddas, will view the poll as demonstrating that Miliband cannot portray himself as an instant solution to Labour's electoral woes.

Of course Miliband isn't the answer to their electoral woes! Seriously, what the fuck? That geeky, gormless man who still looks like a bullied school boy despite holding one of the most important roles in the UK government? He's the answer to your problems? Fuck me, if you seriously think that Miliband - a man who can't physically grin and mistakes a toothy gurn for a smile - is the answer to your electoral woes, then you are absolutely fucking fucked.

The real answer to Labour's electoral woes is a good decade in opposition, so people can forget how bad they really are and grow to hate the other party again. After all, it has worked for the Tories.

And if anything, Labour should be happy about this poll. Because it shows that what they need to turn around their electoral woes is coming. After the next election, they will get to begin their long spell in opposition...

Brown-bashing: In the Doldrums

Another poll, another kick in the face for Gordon Brown. And there is much that the Brown hater can relish. Like his party trailing the Tories. Or a third of voters thinking he is worse that Blair. Or that the voters think that the country is going in the wrong direction under Brown. And the fact that he has achieved these dire approval levels after less than a year in power. Even better are the headlines of some of the articles on the Times website: “The Last Hope for Gordon Brown…”, “Gordon Brown: Stalin to Has-been”, and “Labour MPs revolt…” For anyone who shares my naked scorn of Gordo, these are wonderful headlines. I only hope he has seen them. If not, I’m sure he’ll get the chance to revisit them when he is enjoying his long retirement after a likely defeat in the next election.

However, one sentence does stand out in the article:

“The Tories have been in the lead for all but three months of the past two years, although they are well below the level of the Labour Opposition in the 1990s.”

The question for me (originally posed via e-mail by the Moai) is why aren’t the Tories at the level of the Labour Opposition in the 1990s? I mean, the situation politically is similar – we have a grey faced former Chancellor replacing a once-popular, long serving Prime Minister. We have a fresh-faced, media savvy policy vacuum leading a resurgent opposition. And we have the Liberal Democrats eating each other like cannibals at a picnic. So why aren’t the Tories more ahead in the polls?

Well, it is the economy, stupid. By the mid 1990’s, the Tories had royally fucked the economy through the ERM debacle. And despite having worked to undermine the Tory led recovery (after 1992) systematically since becoming Chancellor, it is only now that the disastrous nature of Brown’s policies are becoming clear to the electorate as a whole. Brown based his economic policies on smoke and mirrors. Only now is the smoke clearing, and the mirrors are breaking.

Which is the scary thing. It is not a case of “things can only get better”; whilst Gordo clings to power, things may well get worse before they get any better. It is a terrifying thought, but the Tories might yet hit the dizzy heights of popularity of Labour in the 1990’s. But only once Gordon has taken our economy and flushed it completely down the toilet.

Christmas Cheer

At least the latest poll data, via Sky News, makes me very cheerful:

The current YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph gives the Tories a solid 12 point lead - on 43% to Labour's 31%.

There is room for intelligent analysis. However, this blog is not the place for that. This blog is for revelling in the misfortunes of Gordon Brown. So my comment is:

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah. Hahaha. Ha. Ha. Hahahahahahahahahahahahahah. Haha.

I particularly like this stat:

More than half (51%) believe Mr Brown has been poor or very poor, against 14% who praise him as good or very good.

Come the next election, (barring a miracle) Brown is fucked. Couldn’t happen to a nicer chap. Blair may have been incompetent, but he was a confidence trickster so fooled enough people into thinking he was ok. Brown, however, is not even competent at being a confidence trickster.

Have a good Christmas, Mr Brown. Because I doubt your new year will be that happy.

A Government In Freefall

A poll in The Independent:

"The survey, taken after Gordon Brown's worst week since becoming Prime Minister, puts the Tories on 40 per cent (down one point on last month), Labour on 27 per cent (down six points), the Liberal Democrats on 18 per cent (up two) and other parties 14 per cent (up four). If repeated at the next election, the figures would give David Cameron an overall majority of 64 seats."

It would be absolutely wrong of me to smirk at the current woes that seem to be drowning the government of our unelected Prime Minister.

That is not going to stop me though.