Miliband Minor and the polls

No doubt Labour types throughout the country will take heart from this poll result - after all, they're ahead for the first time in ages. But it will be a desperate sort of hope; the sort of uplift that comes from people used for so long to being unpopular. But it is too early - far too early - to talk of any Labour renaissance.

Part of the reason is almost all parties get a boost when they've chosen a new leader. And almost all parties get a boost in the polls when they've had their conference. I mean, for the last week there has been almost blanket news coverage of the Labour leadership race and their lacklustre conference. Of course they're going to go up in the polls - they've been in the news nearly constantly for the best part of a week.

What should be worrying them, though, is the response to their new leader from the public. Because that response has been muted at best. Let's take a look at what the numbers say:

Labour's new leader has so far had little chance to make an impression. Among definite Labour voters only 52% say Ed Miliband would make the best prime minister of the three party leaders while 24% name David Cameron. By contrast, 89% of Conservatives pick Cameron. More Lib Dem voters also back Cameron as a competent prime minister than back Clegg. Among all voters, 20% think Ed Miliband would make the most competent prime minister, compared with 47% who say Cameron and 10% Clegg.

Now, these figures are not good news for Miliband. Despite having been elected in a blaze of publicity and despite having made a speech that has been endlessly dissected and replayed in the media, he's still struggling to convince his own voters that he's the best man to be Prime Minister - and among all voters he isn't even close to Cameron. Yes, you can argue that he needs more time to make an impression - and that Cameron wasn't seen as credible as he is now when he first became Tory leader. But these caveats miss some crucial points - when Cameron was elected, he was made leader of a party hungry for power. His main rival for the leadership joined his Shadow Cabinet. The party united behind him. By contrast, 48% of Labour voters think someone other than Miliband Minor would make the best PM and his main rival - his own brother - has gone to the backbenches rather than serve the new leader. Sure, it's early days for Miliband Minor, but this is also his honeymoon period. And he's not getting the sort of poll boost normally afforded to new leaders. This will be his only honeymoon period with the public, and it hasn't started well.