General Election 2011?

Not often I agree with something Jackie Ashley has to say, but her parts of her analysis here are spot on. An election this year would benefit the Tories and would almost certainly result in an outright win for Cameron and his band of happy campers. The Tories have the money to fight and Cameron looks Prime Ministerial in a way Miliband Minor just can't match. Furthermore, Labour has done little to change or reform itself; it remains a party based on negativity, with no positive message to offer whatsoever.

But if anything can stop an election this year, it's the Liberal Democrats. Yeah, they're getting little from the coalition other than flak (which would have happened had they signed up with Labour as well) and it seems unlikely that they will get their much hoped for electoral reform. But they made their bed, they've got to lie in it. Breaking away from the coalition now would mean they are showing that they can't be trusted as partners in power (a big problem for a party that has only governed once as a junior partner in the current coalition). Furthermore, the Liberal Democrats aren't popular at the moment - in a General Election right now, they'd face something approaching a wipe-out. Finally, their leader, Nick Clegg, must know that he will only lead his party for as long as the coalition lasts. If there was a General Election now, I'm pretty sure his leadership of the Liberal Democrats would end shortly after the results of that election came in (and there are no guarantees that he would keep his own seat in the Commons).

The Tories have a lot to gain through an election this year; it remains unlikely as the Liberal Democrats have literally everything to lose.

Ed Miliband: Beyond Boring

If I was to sum up what is wrong is Ed Miliband in one sentence, it would sound something like this: “He’s an indignant potato fatally compromised by his close association with the miserable failure that was the Brown administration”. Helpfully, Miliband Minor has managed to sum his problems as Labour leader in one sentence as well. And it is this sentence, apparently meant to sell the Labour party to potential high-profile Lib Dem defectors:

I think we are now the natural home for progressive politics because we are the only party that can meet a credible claim on social justice.

So… let’s count the ways in which this does not work. Firstly, let’s put it into perspective – he’s trying to get people to defect to his party. He needs something that sounds confident and inspiring. So starting his sentence with “I think” is pretty weak. As party leader, he should know. Even better, he should believe. Modern politics seems to be all about the belief.

Secondly, the natural home sounds quite comforting – the sort of place you might retire to. It certainly doesn’t exude urgency. Perhaps something better like “the only choice”.

Likewise, “credible claim” sounds like a lawyer hedging their bets. Not a leader trying to inspire ministers to leave the cabinet and join his party in opposition for what will probably be a minimum of the next 4 years.

And overall, the whole thing is too long. It is a two part sentence when it should be a short and punchy slogan. I mean, Obama didn’t have “with all things considered, and all other options evaluated, I do believe I can make a credible claim to be the candidate of change” on his posters. No, his watchword was simply “change”.

Miliband Minor’s flaw – and I think it will be the fatal flaw for his leadership – is an inability to inspire. It has become almost a cliché to say it, but he really does resemble IDS. As such, he is a liability for his own party and an asset for the coalition. He sounds annoying, and his words are insipid and uninspiring. Hell, if I was Vince Cable (who his pitch seems to be directed at) I’d stay put – not for ideological reasons, but rather to avoid the tedium I’m sure is involved in having a conversation with Ed Miliband.

Whatever happened to Ed Miliband?

Y’know, I thought being Leader of the Opposition meant that you were supposed to lead, well, the opposition. Thus far, Ed Miliband's leadership had consisted of retiring from frontline politics to relative obscurity. Which is a bold strategy, but not likely to be a successful one given his current position. There are many types of Conservative leaders that Miliband could attempt to emulate; Iain Duncan Smith is not probably the best one though.

The reasons for his relative silence are something of a mystery. The coalition is doing many things that people find controversial – Miliband Minor’s response is to mutely shrug and wonder why people are looking at him with an expectation that he should say something.

But I do have a theory. Miliband Minor has managed to slip down one of the few remaining ideological cracks in the narrow consensus of modern British politics – he is lost somewhere between the centre ground (where everyone seems to want to be for reasons that frankly defy understanding) and the slightly left-of-centre. And the reason is simple – the ‘Red Ed’ tag. As soon as he had been announced as leader, he managed to get the tag ‘Red Ed’. He was tagged as the plaything of the Unions; a dangerous leftie throwback to the Labour party of the 1980’s. And that panicked him, and meant he was unable to position himself anywhere. He couldn’t be Nu Labour, because we seem to hate that brand now. And he can’t be left-of-centre without proving the cheap jibe of “Red Ed” completely correct. He’s got nowhere to go.

Of course, this wouldn’t be the case if he had a backbone. He could stay the course, and defend the Nu Labour brand, or he could be more the left-wing man many assumed he would be (and far closer to his father). But he doesn’t. Like most people in his generation in the political elite, he seems rather afraid that having political convictions will lead to difficult situations. You know, awkward stuff like having to defend his position. The sort of thing that politicians used to do as a matter of course, but now avoid like the plague..

But, while the “Red” tag was arguably cheap and has not necessarily been borne out by the Labour leader’s behaviour, it may yet prove to be one of the most effective nicknames given to a politician in recent years. It seems to be the root cause of the silence of the man who should be leading the opposition in our country.

Oh Happy Day!

If the Con-Dem Coalition achieves nothing else, then it will still deserve praise for this:

Identity cards will be scrapped under plans announced by the new Conservative and Lib Dem coalition government, new Home Secretary Theresa May has said.

Their abolition is among measures the parties have agreed to reverse what they say was "the substantial erosion" of civil liberties in recent years.

The ID card scheme was a monstrous state intervention into the lives of its citizens. Let's hope that this is a genuine move to reinstate some of the civil liberties taken from us by Nu Labour, and let's hope that the database state can be consigned to the dustbin of history, where it so clearly belongs.