Ed Balls. Assassin?

As the Labour party conference rumbles on with all the eloquence, wit and intelligence of a drunken tramp mumbling in the park, much of the press speculation is about the appallingly shaky position of the Prime Minister. And rightly so; The Brown soap opera is probably going to be far more interesting than anything that is said at that conference. But it is all wishful thinking. I don’t think there is the stomach to replace Gordon Brown. It would take a fight, and there don’t seem to be any politicians up for it. David Miliband is so wet he would lose an arm-wrestling contest with a granny, Alan Johnson just doesn’t seem to give a fuck anymore and Harriet Harman will always be impeded by the fact that she is arguably the only person in that party less likely to win an election than Gordon. It would take an political assassin to bring down Gordon, yet those who have most to gain seem to be happy to wait and watch their leader waste away into the history books for a little while longer. If there is going to be an assassin, then it is going to be an unlikely figure.

Which is why I honestly think there if there is going to be a real challenge to Gordon Brown, then it may well come from the most power hungry, amoral and devious member of the Nu Labour cabinet. Step forward, Ed Balls. I’m talking about you.

Now, I understand that Ed Balls has been a loyal supporter of El Gordo for a long time. But loyalty is an odd concept in Nu Labour politics – to understand their corruption of the word you only have to look at Brown’s “loyalty” to the last Prime Minister. Besides, Balls has been very good at positioning himself close to the very pinnacle of British politics. It has been a long time but he started out as a Tory, back when they were in power, and he has let very little stop him from getting into the right position with the right allies. Now his ultimate aim – the Labour leadership – is within his grasp. And I do wonder whether his raw ambition will overtake concepts such a loyalty. After all, if it did, then he would simply be following the example of his mentor.

In the past, being loyal to Brown was advantageous to Balls’ career. That has ceased to be the case – which is perhaps why he has moved to a position where he is openly (although not hyper) critical of Gordon Brown. Furthermore, Brown denied Balls the position of Chancellor – something Balls both desperately wanted and felt he deserved, according to Westminster gossip. Maybe the Brown-Balls (no pun intended) relationship has come to its natural end. Balls can’t get anything more from it, so it is time to end it and move onto the next stage.

And the next stage for Balls is making a bid for the leadership. Which may well involve knifing his mentor, and the man he owes so much to, squarely between the shoulder blades.

Of course, I’m not saying this will happen, and I can’t – despite the utterly self-serving nature of the man called Balls – quite see this scenario playing out. I think an ongoing mix of lethargy and cowardice will make sure Brown is safe – at least until the electorate get a say next year. However, if someone does decide to end Brown’s political career before the General Election, don’t be too surprised if Brown turns to look at who has stabbed him in the back and ends up muttering the words “Et tu, Eddie?”