Michigan, 2008

Over in the US, Mitt Romney has managed to resurrect his campaign for the presidency. I could say the race is now open, but frankly you’ll have heard it all before. And if you haven’t, then there are plenty of news websites out there who will force feed you the necessary meaningless and inconclusive speculation that is floating around in this US election year.

However, look at the breakdown of the results in the Republican field. Something interesting is happening.

Iowa:

Huckabee: 34.3%
Romney: 25.3%
Thomson: 13.4%
McCain: 13.1%
Paul: 10%
Giuliani: 3.5%

New Hampshire:

Romney: 32%
Huckabee: 11%
Giuliani: 9%
Paul: 8%
Thompson: 1%
Hunter: 0%

Michigan:

Mitt Romney: 39%
John McCain: 30%
Mike Huckabee: 16%
Ron Paul: 6%
Fred Thompson: 4%
Rudy Giuliani: 3%

Yeah, there is no clear front runner. Yeah, Giuliani and Thompson haven’t scored squat yet, but they haven’t started to contest the races either. But what you may notice is that Ron Paul is consistently scoring between 5-10% in the primaries.

Why does this matter? I mean, he’s not going to win the nomination, is he?

Well, it matters for three reasons. Firstly, Paul isn’t a typical Republican. He is a Libertarian, and detached from the political mainstream. However this detachment has not stopped him scoring respectably in these primaries. Yeah, he ain’t going to be President come November, but the results show a desire – even with the relatively conservative Republican party – for an alternative to the political mainstream. And that desire – after a few decent results this year, could grow. This is music to the ears of anyone like me, who is sick of the political mainstream that is dominating Western politics.

Also, it shows the commitment of Paul’s supporters that he is still scoring higher than Thompson and Giulaini in some states. His supporters must know that the chances of him being nominated are the square root of bugger all. Yet they still cast their votes for him. Arguably he has a stronger bed rock of supporters than either Giuliani or Thompson, as Paul’s supporters stick with him.

And finally, Paul is starting to pick up delegates for the nominating convention. If he continues as he is doing at the moment, he will have some influence over who gets the nod at that convention, particularly if the race becomes deadlocked. Two big "ifs", but for a Libertarian candidate to be doing this well in the Republican primary season would have seemed next to impossible a year ago.

Big change starts with small beginnings. And if the Libertarians in the US can build on Paul’s unlikely success, then 2008 could be remembered as one of those small beginnings.