Clegg's Choice
So, the Liberal Democrats are mulling Cameron's offer.
I can't be alone in thinking that the Liberal Democrats would be really, really dumb not to take Cameron up on his offer. After all, they are emerging from an election campaign where they lost seats and they cannot afford to fight another election campaign if a stable government can't be formed. Furthermore, Cameron is offering them a lot - a lot - for a small party with only two (Clegg and Cable) truly visible public figures. With actual Liberal Democrats being placed in the Cabinet on offer, Clegg has the chance to make his party actually politically influential for the first time in decades.
Sure, the Tories aren't dropping their pants and begging for electoral reform - unlike Labour. But Labour's sudden conversion to the cause of electoral reform when they've been kicked in the knackers by the electorate and when they want to woo the Liberal Democrats is a little bit like suddenly gaining an interest in a hobby you've never noticed before because someone you'd like to bone is also interested in that hobby. I don't think either party will actually give the Liberal Democrats their much vaunted electoral reform; Clegg's choice is whether he accepts the muted dismissal of the Tories or the outright lies of Labour.
And then there's the small matter of whether Nick "Call Me Change" Clegg wants to actually follow through on the concept of change, or whether he wants to prop up a failed and deeply unpopular government. Furthermore, in propping up the execrable Labour government, Clegg still wouldn't be giving Labour a workable majority, so he wouldn't even be giving Britain a stable government. He can only do that with the Tories.
Ultimately, the people have spoken. Well, mumbled a bit. But their vague and slightly pained mumblings have said that they don't want Brown and they don't want Labour in power anymore. Clegg's best bet is to heed those mumblings, and push Cameron into power. It will piss off a lot of his supporters, and rile a good many people, but it will be far better for him and for his party if he supporters the disputed winner of this election, not the undisputed loser.
Labels: Calamity Clegg, Cameron, Hung Parliament, Labour Party, The Deal
posted by The Nameless Libertarian @ 11:06 am
3 Comments
3 Comments:
The Lib Dems are in a lose/lose/lose situation.
Aligning with the Conservatives will tear the party apart - its left-wing will simply detach itself and head over to Labour.
Aligning with Labour will keep the party together, but see its credibility seriously damaged in the eyes of the general public.
If they do nothing then they'll come to be seen as even more irrelevant than they were before.
Their only hope is to get decent reform of the voting system, and as as neither of the two main parties want to hemorrhage voters to smaller ones it's difficult to see that happening.
A neat analysis.
Whichever way Clegg turns, he's going to get shat on by some faction or another. His best bet is probably to think about how he can explain his controversial decision (whatever that might be) to his party and the people as a whole after he's announced it. And I think an alliance with the Tories because it is creates a stable government and is closer to what the electorate wants will be easier to defend than siding with the discredited Labour regime because it keeps his left-wing happy. Particularly since that still wouldn't give the UK a stable government.
I'd hate to be in Nick Clegg's shoes right now...
Agreed, and I can see if he aligns the LibDems with Labour, they will be absorbed completely, then dicarded like an oily rag. With the Conservatives, they may keep a form of independence.
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