Barack Obama Will Fail

There are few guarantees in life, and it is next to impossible to predict the future. However, what I can guarantee is that Barack Obama will be a disappointment. And not just to jaundiced, cynical types like me - he'll be a disappointment to pretty much everyone.

And do pipe down, Mr and Mrs Ardent Barack Obama supporter. Because that disappointment will hit you too. At some point over the next four years, he will disappoint you. And it will be more heartbreaking and crushing for you than for others, as your passion for the President-elect is so strong. In fact, Obama will go on to create as much cynicism in the future as he has created hope at the moment, when people realise he is not as great as the shameless hype has made him out to be.

I've read quite a few comments in the past week comparing Obama in 2008 with Blair in 1997, and that is a solid comparison. Blair will have created a lot of disappointed people as his promised era of change became just more of the same. But is it not just Blair who has done this. There's also, just in the UK, Eden, Wilson, Callaghan, Brown, Major and - so some extent, even Thatcher and Attlee. Any politician offering change through state appartus seems to end up being a massive disappointment.

To some extent, this is the fault of the politicians seeking election. For example, Gordon Brown promised an end to spin; one of the many reasons why people are so fucked off with the Gordo is because he promised something that he had no intention of delivering. And Obama has promised change, without explaining what change is. And how much will he really be able to reform anything, given his statist ideals are going to be constrained by the current economic climate and by the two wars that the US is currently fighting? Politicians invite disappointment from their supporters as their colossal egos make them promise things that they could never possibly deliver on.

But it is also our fault - the supporters, the voters. We* fall for the sales pitch. We buy into the latest new hope for the nation. We believe the hand of history is going to make the likes of Obama great. We go for the rhetoric, the hype, the self-promoting nonsense. And we fly in the face of history, by ignoring the disappointing precedents. We set up politicians to fail, but having expectations that are clearly beyond the abilities of politicians and their administrations to deliver on.

Which is one of the reasons why I am a Libertarian. Most politicians come to power with some bold, if not insanely optimistic, promises of what the state can do for its citizens. They are looking to leave their mark on history, like a dog wanting to leave a scent on a lamp post. However, your Libertarian candidate should not - and generally isn't - seeking power for the sake of an ego-massage or to find their place in the history books. Rather, they are looking to limit their powers from the outset, and once people have had power from the state returned to them, a Libertarian government will aspire to nothing more than running a capable, limited and almost minimalist administration. Far from promising what the state can do under Libertarians, they will talk about what the state will no longer do.

In theory, the only truly radical and historical Libertarian government will be the first one - the one that returns power to the people, that allows people to become responsible for themselves again rather than giving up responsibility for themselves to the state. Deconstructing the welfare state, reforming the tax code, restoring civil liberties and the justice system - there is a lot to do and therefore it might take more than one administration to do it all. But the unique nature of a Libertarian government is that the reforms would remove government power and reduce the scope of the state. Rather than tinkering with the apparatus of the state and making the basic mistake that state intervention is the answer to pretty much every national issue.

You know you can have genuine hope in a politician vying for high office when they use phrases such as "there is nothing government can do about that" or "this is not an area that requires government intervention." Obama and his ilk are destined to fail because they promise that the state can deliver more than it actually can. A Libertarian government can only fail if they do not start to fight against state intervention, and start to allow you rather than the state to choose what is best for you and for your life.

*Not everyone, obviously. But there were enough people to vote Blair into office. Three times.