President-elect Obama

One of the things about the US getting a new President-elect is it allows for massive speculation about what might happen in the weeks, months and years after that President-elect takes the oath of office. Of course, any sort of speculation is tempered by the realisation that the future predicted might just be plain wrong. So as I round off today’s trio of posts about the US election, I’m going to hedge my bets and offer three different routes that the Obama presidency might take. And I’m going to cite historical precedents as well, to add some much need gravitas to my speculation.

As far as I can see, it could go one of three ways:

The failure: Jimmy Carter

Jimmy Carter came from nowhere, won the Democratic nomination and was helped to the White House by the actions of a disgraced Republican President. Barack Obama came from nowhere, won the Democratic nomination and… well, you get the picture. We have to hope though, that Obama does not follow the rest of the example laid down by Jimmy Carter.

There are real dangers that Obama will be a failure. He does lack experience, he seems to function best in a well-organised cocoon and he is going to be going up against massive problems for the US without really having a plan or tangible policies. Offering change is no longer enough – people are going to want him to start making relevant changes for the better as soon as he gets into the Oval Office. He has several weeks to work out what the hell he wants to do; unless he comes up with plans for both home and abroad, Obama could fail like Jimmy Carter. And let’s remember what happened to Jimmy Carter in 1980 – he was consigned to the dustbin of history by a grinning, bequiffed Republican.

Long on rhetoric, short on action: John F Kennedy et al

There have been lots of comparisons between Kennedy and Obama; certainly both gents could make a great speech. But when you actually look at the Kennedy administration, he achieved very little. Many of the policies and changes assigned to Kennedy – such as Civil Rights – were actually implemented by Kennedy’s successor, LBJ. The reason why Kennedy is so lauded is because he was murdered – allowing his supporters to argue that he never had the chance to put his lofty ideals and unfulfilled eloquence into practice.

I can’t imagine that Obama wants to be assassinated, so he needs to be wary of the Kennedy precedent. Unless he can find a way to put his words into action, he may well end up like another Democratic President who came to the White House as the inheritor of the Kennedy mantle, only to leave that building after eight years with a decidedly mixed historical legacy and very little to show for his years in office. Yep, Obama might end up like a certain William Jefferson Clinton.

Actually quite good: Franklin Delano Roosevelt

FDR was elected in tough economic times, and managed to transform his country. Whilst his (long) time in office was far from flawless, on balance FDR had a positive impact on the USA. He was an activist President, who used all of the resources at his disposal to bring into play the changes he felt that the USA needed to not just survive, but also to flourish.

Certainly, Obama will be facing serious challenges both at home and abroad. Whilst the economic situation in the US is nowhere near as bad as it was in 1932, there are some parallels. Furthermore, given the situation in Congress, Obama will be well placed to implement any policies that he thinks will help. He is in perhaps the most powerful position of any recent President; if he has an agenda, or solutions to the current crisis, he could do far worse that to use FDR as his benchmark.

Whether he chooses to act or not will be the question, though. FDR took risks – some of which worked out, some of which did not. And Obama has shown himself to be quite risk averse…

I suspect that Obama will not be an out and out failure, nor will he be a stunning success: he will end up as the middle option – full of wonderful phrases but not actually being able to practically implement many of those phrases and platitudes. And I suspect many of those who are seeing Obama as salvation for America will end up bitterly disappointed as the President-elect goes through his term in office. But whatever happens, Obama is in a dizzying place right now. He has the support of a majority of the Americans who could be bothered to vote, and he has a plethora of goodwill coming from across the globe. His presidency is a blank canvass – he can create whatever he wants. And at this point, it would be churlish to wish him anything other than the very best of luck.

But that’s enough about the US election; it is over now, and I can’t see anything dramatic happening between now and the Inauguration of President Obama. This may be the last post about our American cousins for a while. So this blog will be going back to* normal*. Oh yes, there are posts to come dissing Gordon Brown, the Liberal Democrats and explaining why history isn’t quite as simple as some would make it.