I think he has given up.

Seriously, the leaked memo and the comments of David Miliband indicate to me that Blair has finally accepted that the speculation is too much and he needs to say when he is going.

So I will predict two things:

1. Blair will announce when he is leaving in the next two weeks.

2. He will allow himself to stay for just over a year, claiming he is organising the orderly transition.

The only way Blair can stop his party from tearing itself apart is by announcing when he is going before the conference. Frankly I can't wait - firstly so we know when we will see the back of the Blair and secondly so we can watch the Labour Party rip itself to shreds, arguing over Brown and Reid as candidates for PM.