A Good Week For Cameron? Are You Sure?

As I predicted a few weeks back, in spite of it being a fundamentally Local Election, there was going to be a national winner and a national loser on May 5th. And lo and behold, when I woke up with quite a sore head on the 5th (4th May was my birthday) I saw a beaming Cameron on the Breakfast News, revelling in the Tory gains in the local elections.

And whilst I am not a massive Cameron fan, I have to say that the results were very good for the Conservatives. 40% is good for any party, but for Labour to be pushed into third place behind the Liberal Democrats must be particularly gratifying. But let's break it down a bit:

1. Labour had a terrible week on the lead up to May 4th. Absolutely awful. Three ministers managed to appear incompetent and dishonest, and managed to do it all on the same day. Whatever happened it was going to be a bad on Thursday for Labour, and the result - given the scandals - could have been worse.

2. The Conservatives failed to expand in the North. Yes, they won back London and areas in the South East - including the crucial Ealing Council. But if Cameron is going to build a national election winning coalition, he needs to break the North/South divide. Even with 40% of the vote, he failed to do that.

3. This was a protest vote in a local election. Labour did very well in local elections in the late 1980's, but did not win power until 1997. There is a big leap between voting for the opposition locally, and voting for them nationally.

4. An extention of (3.), but the election results were against Blair, not for the Tories or for Cameron. Yes, it was the anti-Tory vote rather than the pro Labour vote that gave Blair his 1997 landslide. But the vote is more against Blair than Labour, and Blair won't be in power at the next election (he won't be in power in September of you ask me). And as Major in 1992 proved, a change in leader of the ruling party can be enough to "renew" (TM Gordon Brown) a government. Cameron needs people to want to vote for him and the Tories, not just against Blair and Labour.

So Cameron did well, but it was not an outright victory. And if he is to become PM, there is a long way to go.