LPUK Moving Forward

There's a bit of an autopsy a debate over at the LPUK blog about the crushing defeat suffered by the party in the Norwich North by-election. Now, I've already commented on this, but I think there may be some validity in offering some further thoughts on it now it has the chance to sink in. And, more importantly, offer a personal perspective on how the party moves forward.

Now you might ask why I, the most passive of LPUK "activists", sees fit to comment on the electoral future of the party. And what do I know about politics and, in particular, fighting elections? Well, I've got a background in politics. I have a A-level in the subject, a degree in it and will be starting an MA in it in September. And I also have practical exposure to the process of winning elections in this country - back in the dark days when I was a Tory party member, I was part of the campaign to successfully elect two Tory MPs in the hostile days of the 2005 election. I didn't manage those campaigns or play a senior role, to be sure. But I was on the ground with my eyes and ears wide open. I wasn't at Norwich North but I have an idea of what it was like, and what successful candidates need to do to win not just there but across the country. 

So - and feel free to disagree - this is what I think LPUK should do to move forward from this poor result. But before we talk about that, let's take a look at what the party shouldn't do. 

Negative Actions After Norwich North

It is tempting for any party who has suffered an electoral blow to turn in on itself. Just look at what the Labour party - the party that has been in power for 12 years and is a formidable election machine - is doing this morning. But there are some things that LPUK shouldn't do:

• Deny what happened. We lost, and we lost badly. No amount of spin can change that, and it will only disillusion those members who were hoping for a much better inaugural result.
• Play the blame game. It wasn't Burridge's fault, it wasn't the fault of the ruling elite. I have an idea of what caused this defeat, but blaming the part-time candidate and the part-time leadership of the party is both counter-productive and a bit of an insult to the people who give up their free time to fight for the Libertarian cause.
  
• Get lost in ideological arguments. As we will come to see, I don't think the people of this country really know what the Libertarian message is. So if one thing is going to alienate them further, it will be watching the fledgling LPUK turning in on itself and arguing over its own identity. All parties contain people who aren't ideologically identical; constant arguments over those ideological points are electoral bromide.
• Under-estimate just how long it is going to take. For LPUK to get into Parliament will take years, if not decades. Pisser, isn't it? But unless we strike it really lucky, we are going to have spend a long time doing the grunt work. And Norwich North would seem to suggest that we aren't going to strike it lucky. 
• Forget we are right, and that Libertarianism is worth fighting for. We lost. Badly. Yeah, but we still have the right solutions for this country. Now we need to go on with the battle to communicate those values and win votes. 

In summary, as others have pointed out, LPUK needs to take it's electoral kicking on the chin, and learn from it. At least we contest elections now. We just need to work out how to do it well. 

Identity, Internet and the Media

Identity: no, I'm not going to talk about "what is a true ideological Libertarian" or anything else like that; as I've already said, it is beyond counter-productive to get lost in such debates. No, we need to get some sort of identity out to the British people. Because, as harsh as it sounds, what Norwich North shows is that few people know us, and even fewer care. 

Now we can blame this on different things. It is difficult to explain to a population used to the main party consensus what being a Libertarian means. It is difficult to get a distinct public profile when another party calls itself Libertas. And it is definitely difficult to overcome the bias of the media. But guess what? If we are going to succeed, we need to be able to do all of that. 

If there is one thing that LPUK seems to be good at, it is the internet. LPUK has a much higher profile on the internet than anywhere else. Hardly surprising, it is a party that was formed on the internet and has grown through astute use of that medium. And if you need to get a hundred Happy Warriors for LPUK, you can find them on the internet, all ready to go. Yet the internet is a limited medium when it comes to fighting for votes in individual constituencies. The internet is still mainly used for shopping and porn; choosing a vote isn't the main reason for people to log on. 

There is a role to play for the internet, in terms of identifying and communicating with supporters. But it can't be our primary tool if we want to get better known. 

Getting a higher media profile is crucial. The difficult thing here is exactly how to do that. The media barely has time to report properly on the main parties who have a chance of reaching triple figures in the polls; it is never really going to focus on those who can't even reach that level. The reason why we were beaten by the Monster Raving Looney Party - a party that is the very definition of pointless - is because they have been around for far longer. As a result, they have a far larger media profile. People have heard of the Monsters, which is why some idiots vote for them.

Unless you get a high-profile candidate on board - and witness Kilroy-Silk's impact on UKIP for how badly that can go - then it is the long haul with the media. You will only win them over when you start winning votes. Which is where the real grunt work comes in. 

Individual Constituencies

If this was a presidential campaign, then LPUK could use its internet presence to get more leverage and more support. Problem is, Britain is divided into individual constituencies, effectively neutering this advantage for LPUK. I could link to well over 36 UK Libertarian websites very easily; when the party started in Norwich North, it had 2 members. 

Which is what I mean about the grunt work. Winning elections doesn't start when the election is called; electioneering starts far earlier. In fact, it never, ever stops. The Tories who I observed win in 2005 were out every Saturday morning and selected evenings in the week canvassing and leafletting for the four years before the election. People knew about them because they went to community events, and campaigned about local problems. We can have a national identity, but we also need to explain why, on a local level, people should vote LPUK. 

Chloe Smith won in Norwich North not just because of her by-election campaign, but also because of the campaigning she did before that election was called. 

The reality of British politics is that next Saturday, Thomas Burridge and the LPUK members of Norwich North need to go out and start knocking on doors. If they wait for the next election campaign, it will be too little too late. Getting support is an ongoing process. And guess what? When parties start getting interest from the locals, they will start to attract the attention of the local media. And it snowballs from there. 

Selecting the Constituencies to Fight

Unless I am very wrong, then LPUK can't fight in every constituency in the country. Instead, it needs to select where it wants to concentrate its firepower, and where it wants to do the grunt work of building a local profile and gaining, bit by bit, local support. 

I don't know quite how to select those constituencies, but a few things do seem obvious to me. Firstly, constituencies where there is a credible, local candidate to fight seems like a good idea. Also, where there is some sort of a local party machine, ready to give up some time, is another important consideration. Finally, we need to assess where might be most receptive to LPUK's message. 

The party cannot, and should not, choose whether party members can run for Parliament. However, they do have to make the harsh choices about where the resources go. Even the main parties don't fund some election campaigns to any great extent. My experience of the Tories shows that they threw far more money and effort into Wimbledon than Southwark. Because they had sod all chance of winning in the latter constituency. 

Also, the party should encourage people to run in local council elections. It is a great way to get local support, and far easier to get people elected. Plus, it is a great litmus test of whether resources should be ploughed into a particular area. If you can't win locally, then you have to wonder whether you can win nationally. 

Conclusions: Being Professional

The above won't be news to some, and the party leadership is welcome to take or leave the advice as they see fit. But I reckon that, whilst there is nothing to celebrate in the Norwich North result, then there is no reason for despair either. The result is part of the process of passionate amateurs becoming credible election winners. 

Norwich North should be a case study - Thomas Burridge and the local party should campaign as much as possible for the next year for the General Election, and win several hundred - at a push, several thousand - votes. Then they push one after that election, campaigning all the time, making the case for LPUK locally. And then - in several years time - they come to an election where they are credible candidates for power. It could stretch into decades, but unless LPUK wants to give up the fight right now, it needs to realise it will take a long time to win national seats, let alone national elections.