Pointless Speculation...

...about the 2008 US election. I know it is just under 2 years away but the US does seem to be drifting towards a state of continous electioneering so the time is always ripe for a bit of mildly informed speculation.

Obama will be the early leader in the Democratic primaries and will look like he is about to defy expectations and steal the nomination from Hillary Clinton. However the Democrats will panic again, as they did with Howard Dean, and will end up nominating Senator Clinton. To unite the party, she will invite Obama to join her ticket as the Vice-Presidential candidate. He will accept, and prove himself to be a formidable national campaigner. Better, in fact, than the headline act on the Democratic Ticket.

The Republicans will select John McCain as their candidate, realising the the US needs a more moderate Republican after 8 years of Bush Junior. With Rudolph Giuliani as his Vice-Presidential candidate, McCain will wage and aggressive campaign based on two key fronts - firstly, that he and Guiliani are a much less gimmicky and more experienced ticket than Clinton/Obama, and also that he is a decorated, principled war hero and Senator who is going to be far more capable than Mrs Clinton in dealing with the Iraq war mess. He will also come across as more amiable and charming than the intense, often shrill Clinton and the deciding factor will be the debates, where McCain will easily defeat Clinton. As a result, the next President of the United States will be John McCain.

Just to push this a bit further, let's speculate on 2012. I reckon McCain will struggle as President. He will find being a fiscal conservative very difficult to balance with equipping troops for and fighting the war in Iraq. His attempts at campaign finance reforms will meet with silent - but lethal - opposition from both parties and the Christian Right will desert him, leaving him with diastrous mid-term election results. By the time of the 2012 election he is seen as the Republican equivalent of Jimmy Carter.

In the meantime, the close election result in 2008 and the gains in the House and Senate in both 2008 and 2012 give the Democrats a determination to win the White House back in 2012. Obama is now nationally - and internationally regarded - as a electoral force and he is the presumptive nominee in 2012. Owing to his popularity - and the lack of faith in the McCain administration, Obama wins the White House easily in the November elections.

Of course, this assumes a great deal and no doubt things will radically change over the next six years. But if it was based on careful research and if I did have any sort of idea what would happen over the next 6 years then this wouldn't be pointless speculation, would it?