And the next Leader of the Conservative Party is...

…Boris Johnson.

No, really.

Over at Conservative Party Reptile there is a strong case for a high profile role for Boris in the Conservative Party. I would go one step further – I would argue that Boris Johnson would actually make a great leader of the Conservative Party.

I know from experience that people tend to scoff at this idea, and I can understand why. Ignoring Boris’s idiosyncratic way of speaking and his bumbling public persona, there is also his propensity to get himself involved in tabloid pleasing scandals. But if he can keep his trousers up and if he is really serious about politics (as his resignation as editor of The Spectator would suggest) then the Tories could have a winner in the tousled haired former public school boy.

There are three reasons for this. First of all, he is a highly identifiable figure with the general public. His appearances on Have I Got News For You show someone with a sense of humour, who is happy to laugh at himself and is also happy to be criticised. This is very different to the completely controlled environment that Blair, and increasingly Cameron, exist in. And whilst people liked Blair (and seem to like Cameron) because of his charisma in front of the camera, this was all based on the fact that Blair appeared non-threatening and was detached from the scandal ridden Tories of the time (again very similar to Cameron at the moment). People seem to like Johnson for different reasons – he appears intelligent and likable – someone who you would want to go for a drink with. In spite of his privileged background, and despite his eccentric personality, people seem to see a connection with Johnson. Add some gravitas, and I really think people would vote for him for Prime Minister. Hell, they might vote for him without the gravitas because he is so different to the other MPs out there.

Also, his scandals may be embarrassing for the party but they are no longer terminal for a political career – because his problems have been based on his private life. No handing out peerages in return for election funds or driving a weapons expert to suicide for Boris. Just the plain old inability to keep his pecker in his pants. As Clinton proved in the more socially conservative America, an extra-marital affair is no longer the death knell for the career of a political leader. And let us not forget that Johnson was sacked by Howard for lying, not for having an affair. So even if Boris hasn’t learnt his lesson and manages to get himself embroiled in a sex scandal as Tory leader, it could turn out to be little more than a passing scandal, as long as he doesn’t lose himself in a web of lies.

And finally, there is a precedent for an unlikely – but highly effective – leader, again from across the Atlantic. Ronald Reagan, star of Bedtime for Bonzo and other cinematic *greats*, was always a long shot as President. He was an old man when he ran for office, a divorced man often seen as quite simple. He had run a spoiler campaign against Gerry Ford in 1976, arguably handing the White House to Jimmy Carter in the process. Had you said in 1979 that Reagan would come to be one of the most effective and popular Presidents since FDR, you would probably have been laughed at. But look at the perceptions now – Reagan won two landslides, helped end the Cold War and rebuilt pride in the USA for many of his fellow Americans. Albeit with the help of some formidable advisers, the unlikeliest of candidates proved to be a vote-winner and a success as a national and world leader.

Boris has one advantage over Reagan – he has a formidable intellect, and beneath the bumbling bluster there hides a passionate and curious mind. Get Boris to concentrate on the issue at hand through focussing on his conservative convictions and I do not doubt that you would have a formidable debater – someone who would wipe the floor with almost all likely Labour opponents.

The Tory party have elected unlikely leaders before now – Thatcher was hardly a credible candidate when she stood and ended the Heath leadership, for example. In Johnson they have a highly intelligent, likable vote-winner – so they could do far worse than looking in his direction the next time there is a vacancy at the head of the Tories.