40%, 31% and 19%

BBC News is reporting that the Tories are now leading in the polls on crucial issues. This is the first time that the Conservatives have a real chance of consolidating a poll lead into an general election win. Yes, there is a lot of work still to be done. But the crucial stats that will, no doubt, be raising a smile at Conservative Campaign Headquarters today, are:

"Asked how they might vote in an election with Mr Brown, the man widely expected to be the next Labour leader, pitted against Tory leader David Cameron and Lib Dem leader Sir Menzies Campbell, 40% backed the Conservatives, 31% Labour and 19% the Lib Dems."

The standard charge against the Conservative gains in the polls is that it is all down to an anti-Blair vote, but the figures on the BBC news website do not back this up. Under Gordon Brown, the Labour party loses support, going down from 34% to 31%. According to this, the heir apparent to Blair is even more of an electoral liability than Blair himself.

For those who you who have been following this blog it will come as no real surprise that these figures do not raise my opinion of Cameron. For me he remains a grinning Tory version of Blair nine years after Blair was last fashionable. So why would a Brown v. Cameron election put the Tories 9% ahead of a Labour party led by a successful chancellor?

The answer is simple - whilst Brown is the consummate politician, who maintains his power base but avoids scandals like Iraq, Cash for Peerages and Cheriegate, he remains a dark, brooding presence in government. A surly, gruff voiced Scot who seems to take little pleasure in life. He is not media friendly, he is not photogenic. However Cameron is an ex-PR man who relishes the limelight and cannot pass up on any photo opportunity. Brown may be the consummate politician, but Cameron is the consummate election winner.

So whilst I wholeheartedly support a return to a Conservative government in 2009, I do not think these polls are good for British Democracy. Cameron has overtaken Brown in the polls not because he has the best policies or is the best politician. Cameron is ahead in the polls because he plays better in the media.

Further evidence of the dumbing down of British politics.