2008

Inspired by this post, I thought I would have a look US Politics rather than the UK for once. And who will be vying to be Leader of the Free World (TM) in 2008:

Hillary Clinton – too hated by the American people for being a loudmouthed, female liberal. She won’t get the nomination and if she did, she wouldn’t win.

John McCain – Tortured for by the Vietcong. A passionate and vocal Senator. He is the most likely Republican candidate as he is a tough character but has also distanced himself from the Bush Administration. I think President John McCain is a real possibility.

Colin Powell – His wife doesn't want him to run and has been very forceful about it. She may well be right - there are still those in America who could take extreme action to prevent a coloured President.

Al Gore – Gore is not a natural politician and has already *lost* one Presidential Election but he remains a highly visible, and popular, figure in the Democratic Party and there is a historical precedent for someone to *lose* a presidential election and win eight years later – the late Richard Nixon. President Gore is not likely, but still possible.

Jeb Bush – He is too clever. No, really. When Dubya Bush screws up and does something evil people say “oh, well, he’s not a bad person, he’s just a bit dense. He doesn't understand.” With Jeb is would be a case of “No, wait, this guy does understand. He is just plain evil. He meant to do that. He is evil.”

Joseph Lieberman – Too Jewish. Not for me, for the large sections of the American people. There has never been a Jewish president, and given the loud voices of the Christian Right, it is unlikely to happen in the near future.

Wesley Clark – Not the most charismatic candidate but in the post 9/11 world a Democrat General turned President is a real possibility. Besides, a war hero with limited interpersonal skills but who could be presented as an avuncular figure? Worked very well for Dwight D. Eisenhower.

Howard Dean – The Dean Scream killed and chances of him ever winning the presidency or the nomination, I think.

John Edwards – He is too associated with the failed Kerry bid for the White House and whilst he is a genial, eloquent candidate he also has very little experience of just about anything and comes across as a third rate Kennedy.

John Kerry will not be able to stage a comeback – his was the worst run campaign since McGovern lost to Nixon in 1972 (and McGovern nominated for Vice-President a man who had had electro-shock therapy.)

Joe Biden would be a good choice for the Democrats, and the election may well be McCain against Biden. Biden stands a real chance as McCain tends to speak his mind too much for someone running for President. If Biden surrounded himself with Carville, McCurry and some of the other Clintonistas in the general election, we could see the Democrats return to the White House. But those guys will probably, to start with, support Hillary.

And that is ignoring a genuine wild card… Condi Rice. She says she doesn't want to run, but there are already "Draft Condi" movements. If she is called to serve, so to speak, she may not be able to resist.