What if... Prime Minister John Smith

A counterfactual inspired by this article on BBC news.

“John Smith fought the 1997 election knowing that there was no way he could lose, and it was just a question of how large his majority would be. He refused to compromise on some of the key proposals from the modernisers, such as agreeing to Tory spending plans. In the event he won a majority of 101 seats, with Major resigning as soon as the result was announced. Smith entered parliament with a new confidence, and easily managed to match the performance of new Tory leader Michael Portillo at PMQs. He quickly set about implementing his reforming agenda, freezing all tax cuts, implementing a devolution Bill for Scotland and Wales, and ending hereditary peers in the House of Lords as part of his five year plan for reform of the Upper House. However he encountered problems in his first term, with the petrol, crisis paralysing the country and his government’s seeming inability to deal with the Foot and Mouth epidemic. He also failed to reach an accord with the IRA, owing to his refusal to sign up to any deal that allowed terrorists and murderers to be released on to the streets. As a result the IRA unleashed a new terror campaign on the mainland. The Labour party also became increasingly divided over the issue of Europe, with Smith refusing to take Britain into the Euro until the fledgling currency had proved itself. By late 2000 a Tory victory looked unlikely, but many Labour MPs were seriously worried for their seats.

“Then scandal engulfed the Tory party when it was revealed that Michael Portillo had indulged in homosexual activity whilst at university. Portillo tried to play down the issue, saying it was in the distant past and not relevant to his abilities as Leader of the Opposition. There was broad agreement from the opposition parties, but it became clear that many Conservative MPs and grassroots Tory members no longer supported their leader and wanted him to go. Rather than tear the party apart, Portillo resigned. Michael Howard emerged as Leader unopposed – as Theresa May noted, “who would want to run for leader of this party when we have just proved ourselves once again to be the nasty party?” Howard fought a tough campaign in 2001 but it was undeniably geared towards retaining the core Conservative support. The liberals of Middle England, who the Tories so desperately needed to win over, were utterly turned off by the Portillo affair. In the event, Labour lost 5 seats – 1 to the Tories, and 4 to the Liberal Democrats. After a chequered first term, Smith managed to retain a majority of 96.

“Privately, he told close colleagues that he would stand down halfway through the second term. He knew his health was failing, but he still wanted to push forward further reforms of the Lords and also work on the NHS and the School system. He began his five year plan for the latter two areas, and also caused considerable controversy by raising the top rate of tax whilst reducing the bottom rate. He also raised the minimum wage. However many noted that, when faced by the dynamic and aggressive David Davis (who had replaced Howard as Leader of the Opposition after the second Labour landslide) he looked tired and pundits noted that there were definite moves to make the Chancellor, Gordon Brown, the heir apparent for Number 10. Then 9/11 changed the world. Smith committed himself to stand by the US, but privately asked Bush to withdraw US funding for the IRA. Relations between the two were always strained, in spite of Smith’s support for the Afghan war, and broke down completely when Smith refused to back the US invasion of Iraq. Bush publicly announced the US supported a return to Tory rule in the UK. Privately Smith joked that Bush’s support for Davis “would be enough to keep the Yorkshire Cliche from Number 10 for the foreseeable future.”

“Then, in the summer of 2003, Smith suffered a major heart attack. He was critically ill for several days, and took nearly two months to recover. He returned to Number 10, but within a week told the cabinet that he was going to resign. He told them that he wanted a smooth transition to a Brown premiership. In the event, Brown was challenged by the moderniser Alan Milburn but won easily, and Smith duly left Number 10 with just over 6 years as Premier. When asked what his legacy would be at his last press conference as PM he smiled and said “Well, we have a left wing Prime Minister facing a right wing Leader of the Opposition. We have real political debate in this country. Frankly, I couldn’t ask for a better legacy.””