Ed Miliband's Credibility Gap

One of Miliband Minor’s biggest problems is in how he comes across. In order to be an effective party leader, you have to look like a credible (future) Prime Minister. Unfortunately the leader of the Labour party looks like Mr Potato Head trying to be stern. Which, in all honesty, is not ideal in a potential PM.

Other party leaders have managed this effortlessly. Despite being an odious cretin, Blair’s natural sense of self-worth meant he always appeared to be comfortable in his own skin and therefore, at least on some levels, was a very credible candidate for the highest office in this land. Cameron has a similar vibe; while being the very definition of lightweight when it comes to policy, he has a certain gravitas that made him look like a credible candidate for Prime Minister even before he walked over the threshold into Number 10 this summer.

Other party leaders may have had this gravitas at some point in their careers, only to completely lose it. Thatcher would be the best example of this. In 1987 she not only looked credible as Prime Minister, she also came across as an absolute natural in the role. She appeared confident, controlled and demanded respect. By 1990, she had completely lost the plot and looked like a mad old woman who was a liability both to her party and to the country. She had it, she lost it.

Of course, the success of a party leader at looking Prime Ministerial is dependent to some extent on who they are facing. Hence in 1992 Major looked the most Prime Ministerial; by 1997, this was no longer the case. What changed? Well, the 1992-1997 parliament was bruising for Major, but that was not the main cause of the change in the way he appeared. Put simply, in 1997 he was up against Tony Blair at the height of his smarmy charm. In 1992, he was up against Neil Kinnock – a man (like Michael Howard in many respects) who was an extremely capable politician in many ways, but never ever really looked or sounded like someone you would want to put in charge of the country.

It is possible to pull the wool over the eyes of many and appear Prime Ministerial when in fact you aren’t. This is what Brown managed in the years leading up to 2007. Of course, he managed to do this by staying out of the political limelight as much as possible and certainly not letting the Great British public know what he was really like under any circumstances. That strategy simply isn’t open to a Leader of the Opposition – their role is arguably one of the most high-profile in British politics and hiding away won’t work. Just ask IDS.

And that is the problem Ed Miliband has. He can’t hide away and hope for the best; he has to engage with the public. He’s up against a Prime Minister who is managing to remain detached from the more unpopular policies of his government at the same time as exuding a certain quiet confidence in his new role. And there doesn’t appear to be any danger of Miliband suddenly gaining gravitas in the near future. He is likely to remain an extremely awkward figure who struggles to communicate effectively.

Of course, you can argue that it shouldn’t matter how politicians come across – that the choice of who leads this country should be down to policies and ideas. And to some extent you’d be right. But the problem is that so much of modern politics is down to appearance and the project image of politicians. And that’s why Miliband Minor is struggling, and is likely to fail. Quite simply, he doesn’t look like a Prime Minister in waiting.