The Long War in Afghanistan?

With the 100th British soldier dying in Afghanistan, it is probably worth asking the fundamental question about our presence in that conflict. It has nothing to do with the Labour rhetoric of endlessly repeating the idea that this war is vital to UK security, or the current Tory tactic of demanding more international support. Immediate questions of rhetoric and logistics are irrelevant in the long-term. The question we have to ask ourselves is whether we have the stomach to cope with the war in Afghanistan in the long term; whether we are willing to stay there for another ten to twenty years; and whether we are willing to see the death count double (if not treble or quadruple) in pursuit of some sort of stability in that country.

Because in order to put down the insurgency in Afghanistan, we will probably need to be there until at least 2020. If not longer. We will need to build up a sense of security in that country (no mean feat for any occupying force, even a heavily armed one, since any security the occupying force can offer ceases on the day that force leaves), and then help it build up some sort of society where the best career option isn't been an insurgent. That cannot happen overnight. In reality, it will take years. And the insurgents will continue to fight, and to kill. The IEDS will keep going off. The body bags will keep coming home. And the mistakes that claim innocent Afghan lives will continue to be made. It is a bleak prognosis, but is also a realistic one. The only reason why the Taliban managed to gain such a strong foothold in that country is because they were able to offer some form of security. We need to be able to offer the same but this is far more difficult for us, since on the day we leave, the Taliban will still be there. As things stand, a pragmatic, long-term view for any Afghan would be to back the Taliban - and that is what we need to combat.

It is well within the bounds of possibility that a successful counter-insurgency campaign in Afghanistan will not just last longer that the current Labour government, but also the incoming Tory one. It would be a long-term campaign, that would require the support of the British people. Therefore, the key question that the government needs to ask the people of this country is whether they are willing to commit to this conflict for years to come, or whether they wish to write off the lives lost so far, and run away from that conflict. It is not an easy choice to make - but at this stage, the British people need to know what the choice actually is. Against the empty futility of the meaningless platitudes spouted by politicians of all parties, it would be great to get a feeling for the reality of the situation facing us in Afghanistan actually is.