Cameron: Get Ready For Power

In a year's time, I am confident that I will be writing this blog under a Tory government. I don't doubt that Cameron is Prime Minister in waiting, and that the Tory electoral policy should just be "steady as she goes".

However, Cameron needs to be careful and the lessons of history - in particular the mistakes of Tony Blair in the run up to 1997 - need to be heeded. The fact he is going to win shouldn't stop him from doing the hard work now to ensure that his transition to power is as painless and as effective as possible. This involves thinking about and dealing with a number of different issues and potential problems. Namely:

Work out why he's seeking power

Blair pissed away the whole of his first term, when he was at the very height of his political powers, because he never worked out why he ran for power. He was very effective in opposition, using the simple logic that he wasn't the Tories. However, once he had got into power, he had no agenda. Consequently, he basically had nothing to show for his first four years in power. 

Cameron's time in Opposition has been light on policy as well. Yeah, yeah, I know that he argues any policies will be stolen by the Labour party, but even if he doesn't announce exact details of what he is planing to do until he publishes his manifesto, he needs to work out exactly what he is going to do when he is power now. After he has become Prime Minister, it will be too late. He needs to work out what the Tories and what Prime Minister Cameron will be now. 

Work out who is who

Cameron needs to decide who is going to be in his first Cabinet as soon as possible, and also start getting them used to the idea. Take George Osborne. If he is going to be Chancellor, then fine. If he isn't, then Cameron needs to start managing Osborne's expectations from now until the election. And so on, for everyone who might feel they have a right to a place in the Cabinet after the 2010 General Election. 

He also needs to work out who his enemies are. Who is going to rock the boat for him, and what is he going to do about them? He's not going to be able to control everyone, and he isn't going to be able to neuter all of his enemies. But knowing who they are now will at least remove the element of surprise, and will allow him to plan for the problems. There is no space for complacency. His party may be united at the moment, but history shows that the Tories aren't great at staying united for long. Particularly not in power. 

Finally, he should work out who is going to embarrass him. Who's corrupt? Who's been fucking around? Who is going to be the News of the World headline? Maybe he can't protect the people in his party, but it may impact his choices of who works closely with him and who is in his Cabinet if he knows now who's going to be a headache later along the line. 

Prepare for a hung Parliament

I think the Tories will win outright. Yet, they have a large Labour majority to overturn, so he needs to consider what he will do if he doesn't win a large majority or if there is a hung Parliament. Part of this will be working out how he can put together a majority if there aren't enough Tory MPs to do so, and what he would be willing to sacrifice to say... get a coalition with the Liberal Democrats. 

And he needs to have a strategy on what he does if he has a small or no majority in the longer-term. Taking a look at Harold Wilson's first term as PM might help. Wilson won a tiny majority in 1964. In 1966 he was able to turn it into a majority of 96. If Cameron finds himself in the same position as Wilson did in 1964, then he should quickly implement some uncontroversial, popular legislation and give people enough time to start to see him as the Prime Minister. Then he should go to the country, and hope for the best. Hanging on too long will mean more compromise and a decline in popularity. Of course, another election in 2011 or 2012 might not work, as Wilson found in 1974. However, minority governments just don't work in the long term in this country. And Cameron should do everything in his power to get a working majority as soon as he can. Even if the voters don't give him one next year. 

Prepare for a landslide

A landslide is a possibility for Cameron, according to some recent polls. And if that happens then he needs to be ready to be bold, and get the most difficult and the most problematic parts of his manifesto passed as soon as possible. If he has to do something controversial (sweeping spending cuts spring to mind) then he needs to do it in his honeymoon period with his large majority as soon as possible after he becomes PM. PM's don't tend to get more popular - at best, he can hope to maintain his popularity. But it is no good waiting years to start building a legacy as Tony Blair did. In the event of a large majority, Cameron needs to exploit whatever goodwill he has to implement what he believes to be right. 

Which makes it even more important that he works out who he is and what he stands for now. 

Don't be complacent

I think Cameron will win. All the indicators point to a Tory victory. Yet... in 1992, Labour were going to win. Kinnock was going to be Prime Minister. Cue the Sheffield Victory Rally, and John Major winning the largest number of votes in UK history. Until the votes are cast, and the fat twunt is out of Parliament, Cameron still needs to fight. The chances of the Tories losing are negligible. Nonetheless, there is still a chance, and Cameron needs to make sure he continues to fight for power until he wins it. 

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Make no mistake about this, I don't like Cameron. I'm not a Tory, and don't particularly relish the idea of the coming Tory government. But I think it is best for the whole country if we don't end up with another wet behind the ears, out of depth Prime Minister as we did in 1997. Cameron is poised to become our Prime Minister. He needs to ready for the awesome responsibility he is going to take on, and using the next few months wisely will help to make him ready.