Iowa, 2008

There will be an election in a few days time. Not in Pakistan, it seems, but rather the Iowa caucus in, well, Iowa. For anyone who doesn’t understand the way the US election system works, it must be faintly bemusing to see a small number of US voters going to the polls 11 months before the Presidential Election actually happens. But the Iowa caucus is crucial. And more for the Republicans than for the Democrats.

Those vying for the Democratic nomination this time out are quite middle of the road for their party. On the one hand, you have the experienced but also the charisma vacuum that is Hilary Clinton. And then on the other side you have the audacity of hope but paucity of policy, experience and maturity that comes with Barack Obama. Actually, if you combined the two together, you would probably have a very interesting ticket. Any road, you certainly don’t have anyone as extreme and unelectable as Howard Dean running for the Democrats this time.

The Republicans don’t quite have the same strengths when you review the front runners for their nomination. On the one hand you have the charming but terrifyingly loopy Mike Huckabee. On the other hand you have the charmless and moronic Mitt Romney. Both could be classed as religious fundamentalists, both are shit choices if the US wants to recover from the disaster of the Bush years. Between them, though, they have 32.3% of the Republican votes. Sure, Guiliani is ahead – but is beating Huckabee by just 1 point in some polls. McCain – once the presumptive nominee and the most experienced of all those candidates running – is behind Huckabee and is struggling to better Romney – in some cases he is ahead by just 0.7%, in others he is behind. You could take some comfort in the fact that Guiliani is ahead, but it is worrying that he is not much, much further ahead. And there is always the danger in a caucus or primary of an upset victory – hell, even a victory can be considered not strong enough for a sitting President to continue. Neither Guiliani nor McCain are likely to win an upset victory, and the danger of a loss of momentum (and with it the election) is palpable.

As I’ve mentioned before, this is a crucial election for the US. The electorate will need to decide which moderate candidate is best placed to repair the damage done by the eight terrible years of the Bush administration. And that choice will be far more worthwhile if the electorate can choose between a moderate Republican and a moderate Democrat rather than between a Democrat and a Christian fundamentalist. I’ll be watching the Iowa caucus with a lot of interest and more than a little concern, because those few voters who decide the Republican caucus could be contributing to who will become the most powerful person in the world.