The Dwindling Influence of Gordon Brown

Gordon Brown on the failure of the Copenhagen climate talks:

"I am now going to lead a campaign around the world with other countries for the legally binding treaty that is the obvious next stage from this."

I think it is sweet that Gordon Brown is already planning what he is going to do with his (enforced, completely involuntary) retirement. The only problem he might find is that no-one is going to listen to him. I mean, I think most leaders struggle to care what Gordon Brown has to say even though he is Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. When he is an ex-Prime Minister, an ex-MP and an ex-politician, they aren't going to give the first fuck about anything he says or does.

It is true that some politicians do have careers after they step down from power. Blair would be a good example of this; he makes lots of money consulting with companies, and also has a job prancing around the world as some sort of envoy to the Middle East. Hell, he was nearly EU President, until wiser heads realised that he would be a fucking disaster in that role. Yet Blair has nowhere near the influence he had when he was Prime Minister, and Brown would be lucky to get even a tenth of the influence wielded by Blair. The reason is so simple it almost seems crass to point it out, but I will do anyway. Very simply, Brown is not Blair.

Blair, for all of his faults (and, by Christ, there are a lot of faults in that man), was a successful politician in that he could win elections and converse with people - from the man on the street through to the President of the United States - effectively. Brown can do neither - although, in fairness, his electoral ability has not really been tested since he runs away every time there is even a whiff of a contest. But whereas Blair could be considered a partial success both as a politician and a human being (as much as it pains me to write those words), Gordon Brown most certainly cannot. It is a bit like when a colleague you really hate resigns from the office. There are the platitudinous promises to stay in touch; but once the office door closes on them, you breathe a sigh of relief and thank your lucky stars that you never have to see them again. That is how I think world leaders will feel when Brown stomps out of Number 10 for the last time.

Of course, some failed world leaders have gone on to have successful careers. One example is Jimmy Carter. Of course, Carter was a colossal failure as President. Really just terrible. Yet, since his time in office, he has managed to salvage his reputation to some extent and do some good work. Likewise, Nixon managed to undo some of the damage that his resignation caused to his reputation. However, again the personalities of those leaders plays an important part in the resurrection of their post-presidential careers. Nixon's greatest strength was a political tenacity matched by few in the history books. He had the determination to fight back and work hard to salvage whatever he could for his place in the history books. Brown - a man who waited ten years to get the job of Prime Minister, and who has had to actually fight for remarkably little in his life - will lack the tenacity to do the same. Besides, Brown is probably deluded enough to not think he has to do any work on rescuing his reputation. Likewise, Carter has something Brown lacks - humility. One story about Carter has the former President working for Habitat for Humanity whilst his Vice-President campaigned for the White House in 1984. It is hard to imagine Brown working for a charity (and actually doing manual labour) whilst his successor as Labour leader campaigns in a General Election. Brown would probably be at the Labour rally, demanding to be made Labour leader again and also Prime Minister.

The sad truth is that the same personality flaws that have made Brown such an atrocious Prime Minister will still be present after he leaves Number 10. And those flaws will probably stop him from rescuing his tarnished reputation, let alone acting as an influencer on world leaders. Brown will probably be as much as failure as a former Prime Minister as he is as Prime Minister. His model won't be any of the leaders mentioned above; it is far more likely he will follow the example of Edward Heath, and be a misanthropic, malign millstone for his party as they try to move on.

If Brown wants to influence anyone on any issue, then he has - at best - 6 months to do it. After that, no-one is going to care.