Tony Blair and Lady Luck

Luck is a part of life, and the harsh truth is that some people are luckier than others. But part of life is about how you exploit luck - both your own good fortune and the misfortune of others. There is also some truth in the old adage that you make your own luck in this world.

Now, I think Gordon Brown has been unlucky in his time as PM. Events have chosen to shit on him time and time again. Part of his problem has been the inept and crass way he has responded to every issue. And his time as Chancellor means he had, on some levels, been the architect of his own misfortune. Yet when you compare Brown's luck with that of his predecessor, the extent to which life has chosen to mess with the incumbent PM is brough into sharp relief.

Truly, Tony Blair was lucky; in fact, pretty much every aspect of his career as a political leader was blessed with luck. He was in the right place at the right time to run for the Labour leadership. Seriously, he was up against Prescott and Beckett. He couldn't fail to win. And look at the Labour party he inherited from Kinnock and Smith. A party that had shed those idiotic members who wanted to be part of a student union style Trotskyite fan club, and instead had become a party that realised it had to fight for power rather than expect it to fall into their laps because they were well-meaning and they thought the Tories weren't very nice. Forget talk of the Clause IV moment; the real battles for the Labour party took place in thew 1980's under Kinnock. Blair inherited a party that was ready to fight and compromise for power.

And look at the government Blair was required to oppose. The Tories were more interested in receiving money in brown envelopes from grubby associates and fucking anything that moved than being a coherent government. And as well meaning as John Major was, he was broken and compromised by a lack of charisma, Black Wednesday and a fitful Tory party that didn't rate him but also didn't want to replace him. In this regard, Blair had the same good fortune as Cameron to simply be able to stand next to his opponent and say "well, at least I'm not him."

Let's move through to Blair's time in power. Elected with the sort of majority that would allow you to piss on the British population with impunity, Blair was challenged by remarkably little during his first few years in power. The Fuel crisis and Foot-and-Mouth disease were real problems, but the media seemed reluctant to actually take the government to task over these glaring issues. And the scandals came and went, but didn't engage the public mind as much as the smut and sleaze that made sure Major's Back to Basics campaign was stillborn.

The real problems started to come to Blair after he had cruised to victory again in 2001 against an impotent and broken opposition. The Iraq War represented the first real challenge to his authority... yet, luck again plays a role. Because whilst there was opposition from some Labour MPs and the Lib Dems, the Tories backed up Labour and therefore helped ensure that Blair survived. The opposition to the war was led by that ginger drunk, Charles Kennedy - which as it turns out was a lot like leaving your vital brain surgery in the hands of the village idiot.

And his luck held, despite the ongoing war. Every official investigation into his actions seemed to conclude that Blair was A-Ok. The opposition within in Labour was subdued grumblings, and whilst the Tories had decided that they should start opposing again, their chosen leader had the mis-fortune to be one of the least telegenic people and speakers in history (altogether now - "peepil".) And when he again sought election, the British people decided that whilst they did want to give him a bloody nose, they didn't want to beat him up too badly and wanted to leave him with a workable majority. Inertia in the electorate proved to be good luck for Tony Blair.

And when the wheels did come off Blair's premiership, they did so in a way that was very fortunate for him. There was none of the drama that comes with a General Election defeat, and there was nothing like the high drama that ended Thatcher's time in power. It was just that the grumblings within the Labour Party got louder, meaning Blair had to lay out a year long timetable for departure. A year long departure! How lucky is that? How often does anyone get the chance to plan their departure for nearly 12 months in modern British politics?

Think about the timing of his departure. He was in power for just long enough to be considered one of the longest serving Prime Ministers of all time. He left without being forced out, and he left just before the country disappeared down the shitter and round past the U-bend. Can you imagine if he'd waited for three months? For six months? For longer? If he'd gone after the loss of those data discs, or as the banks started to collapse, or as the whole Nu Labour facade finally shattered? All the talk would have been about how events had forced him out, how he was effectively resigning in disgrace and he'd have been heckled as he left the Commons, rather than applauded. Blair's luck held out and he left at just the right time. Sure, those of us in the know realise that Blair is as responsible for the dreadful circumstances we now find ourselves in as Brown. But a lot of people associate Blair with the good time, just before Brown took over and the UK went to hell in a handcart.

It is tempting to hate Blair for being lucky, but that misses the point. As I mentioned earlier, like it or not, luck is a part of life. But what you can hate Blair for is what he did with the good luck he encountered. Because he used every little piece of luck he encountered to shore up his own position. As leader of a political party and then leader of a country, he used his good fortune to his own selfish ends. At no point did Blair take his good luck and use it to the benefit of the fucking country he was meant to be running.

Seriously, after such an easy 10 years for a Prime Minister, you'd have thought that the country would be in a much better position. But no. Internationally, we are fighting two wars and still losing troops. Nationally, we are mired in debt and recession. This is Tony Blair's legacy; his years in office displayed the best of luck for that cockbag, but were tremendously bad luck for the poor people in this country.

If there was any justice now, Blair would be accompanied wherever he went and whatever he did by a slow, scornful handclap. In every moment of his worthless life, he should be followed by the relentless beat of sarcastic applause for a wasted decade in power. Far from being lauded as an elder statesman, he should be vilified as utter failure that he so clearly is.

But that won't happen. See, Blair's too lucky. He'll be able to swan around as a cross between an evangelical minister and international diplomat.

He's got the luck of the devil, that one.