Understanding Putin's Success

Whilst the “Georgian operation” (what a wonderful euphemism for an all out military assault) is coming to an end, the world is looking at Russia and feeling a bit twitchy. This shouldn’t be a new feeling. After all, it was pretty much the status quo between circa 1948 and circa 1990. Talk of a new Cold War is premature, but it is difficult to look at the situation in Georgia and not feel deeply concerned by what is happening. Russia does not tend to fight wars with restraint and a desire to avoid collateral damage. Their mindset is not about controlling rebels or bringing order to a particular region. It is about crushing the opposition. Brutally and unmercifully.

There is more than enough commentary on what has caused this conflict, and what it means for Georgia and the rest of the world. I’m not going to rehash all that. But there is a simple reason why the Russian people will support Putin in his brutal and violent suppression in Georgia. Putin is the leader they want – not least because he is prepared to do things like this.

Before we look at why Putin is the leader Russia wants, let’s clear up a point of admin. Medvedev maybe the President of Russia, but he is very clearly Putin’s puppet. To claim otherwise is hopelessly naïve. Putin remains the leader of Russia, even though he has the technically subordinate position of Prime Minister. In fact it is entirely conceivable that, for the Russian Federation, the position of Prime Minister will become the true seat of power rather than the President – just as the post of General Secretary in the Soviet Union superseded roles such as Premier in the Soviet Union.

So, having accepted that Putin is the real leader of Russia, let’s take a look at why. Yes, part of the reason is because he rigs election. But there is still a groundswell of support of Vlad the dictator. And part of that reason is because Putin is steeped in the history of the Soviet Union, and partly because – despite the numerous screw-ups – he is also restoring some national pride to a nation that, since 1989, has been suffering some sort of national breakdown.

Let’s look at both of those reasons in turn. Firstly, Putin – who famously is an ex-KGB agent – is steeped in the history of the former Soviet Union. And he looks and acts like a capable, Soviet leader in the years before they became decrepit, dying, obese and increasingly bovine. He inspires confidence as he appears to be on the ball, intelligent, and capable or making both quick and difficult decisions. He was also part of one of the few areas of the Soviet state that actually worked efficiently: the KGB.

And it is important to remember that the majority of the Russian population are also steeped in the former Soviet Union. It has been less that twenty years since the Soviet Union vanished into the history books – and some people might hark back to the relative security of the totalitarian Soviet state next to the relative anarchy that came with the introduction of democracy. They also might look back with rose-tinted spectacle on the former Soviet Union for another reason: at the height of the Soviet Union, Russia was respected and feared internationally. Putin is recreating that aura.

Russia is again acting swiftly and brutally to quell opposition. Georgia is just the latest example. Putin is making Russia a strong, and terrifying, international superpower again. He knows the US will do nothing to challenge Russia, and that the country – by dint of the sheer size both in terms of land mass and nuclear arsenal – can do pretty much what it likes without any real threat of retribution. Invade a satellite nation, surpress democracy, kill a political opponent in London; Putin can do it all, because we need Russia, and are slightly afraid of it as well.

So Russia is becoming a superpower again – and for those who remember the Soviet Union as a global force to be reckoned with and feel proud about that can take some comfort from Putin’s bellicose and aggressive behaviour. Russia is a key player in international politics; it has a clear identity. Putin is responsible for much of that.

Above all, what Putin has managed to do is recreate some elements of the Soviet Union – strong leadership and international renown – without recreating the stagnant, bureaucratic mess that the Communist State became. He is offering the best of both worlds, so it is no wonder that many people in Russia respect and support him.

Please note I am not advocating the former Soviet Union. The Soviet Union was a brutal, corrupt, monolithic and hopelessly bureaucratic dictatorship. It was destined to fail for two reasons (ignoring the utterly stupid political philosophy it was based on). Firstly, the purges removed anyone with any talent from senior roles in the state on a regular basis. Secondly, the Five Year Plans were never reached but because people lied about achieving them new, even more ambitious Five Year Plans were put into place. So you had the farcical situation of the less talented people trying to realise a Five Year Plan based on the unrealistic goals of a previous Five Year Plan that was never actually achieved. It is no wonder the Soviet Union fell apart. Had it not been for the brutal suppression of debate and free speech, the Soviet Union would have fallen apart far earlier than it did.

Nor is this a love letter to Vladimir Putin. He scares the living hell out of me. He has the zeal, the determination, and the stare of an ideologue and a madman. He wants the best for Russia, and will get it whatever the cost. He is a dangerous man to have in charge of Russia, and his ongoing grasp of power will have serious ramifications not just for Russia, but for the world as a whole.

But it is worth noting just how Putin has managed to stay in power for so long, and why people in Russia do support him. We can (rightly) complain and protest as much as we like about Putin and his actions, but there is a method to his apparent madness. And unless we understand the mindset of the Russian people – which is mired in some of the most turbulent historical changes if recent memory – we won’t understand why things like the Georgian conflict, or the murder of Litvinenko, or the war in Chechnya happen.

Democracy came to Russia in the corpulent and corrupt form of Boris Yeltsin. It is a bit like the British people getting their first taste of democracy through someone like Michael Martin. So the Russian people can be forgiven for looking to a strong figure steeped in the past for real leadership – even if the ramifications for those in Russian satellite states and potentially further abroad are terrifying. And until the Russian people get offered something better that Putin and his ilk, they will continue the support the steely eyed, neo-totalitarian leader who is able to restore something resembling national pride to what once was one of the world’s superpowers.