The Recession *Ends*

So, the recession is over. Whoop-de-doo, as it turns out. As this graph at Guido's place points out, there is a long way to go before the economy truly recovers.

I've not got any interest in doing a detailed economic analysis - it has been done to death, and by far more impressive economists than me. No, it is the political aspect that fascinates me. Because there can be no doubt that the Labour party, and in particular Gordon "Saving the World" Brown, will claim credit for what is a perfectly natural tentative step in the direction of recovery within the global economy. This is nonsense, as Jackart points out:

This is good news, but whenever Mr James Gordon Brown of No. 10 Downing Street, London, SW1 refers to it, replace the words "because of" with the word "despite".

As in "despite the actions taken by this Government, the UK has now emerged from recession."

Well, quite. But what impact is this going to have on the General Election? Because if there is one thing that Nu Labour has shown, it is that large minorities of the British public are happy to be bought off by false claims from the Labour party. Yet I think the Labour party will have a tough job passing any recovery off as their achievement. For exactly the same reason as the Tories had trying the same thing in 1997. In 1997 the Tories could boast of an economic recovery. The only problem is they had caused the economic meltdown in 1992. Just as Gordon Brown now claiming a role in the recovery will be undermined by the fact that he was Chancellor and then Prime Minister as the economy disappeared down the toilet.

Of course, that will only work if the Tories consistently remind the British public that Labour were in command as the recession began, and have wasted billions chasing a recovery that was going to happen anyway. The recession was a godsend for the Tories, but the recovery can be too. Gordon Brown has wasted billions. Taxes will go up because of Gordon Brown. That's the new Labour Double Whammy, and that's Cameron's working majority, right there.

Recessions do end. And the demise of this one should do nothing to change the upcoming demise of Gordon Brown.