Labour's Worst Case Scenario

John Major did his party a major (pardon the pun) favour in 1997. Sure, he led his party to a crushing defeat in the polls. But once the votes were in, he resigned as Tory leader. As a result, he relieved his party of having the stigma of such an unpopular leader, and he also gave them a chance to choose not only a new leader, but a new direction for the party to take them back towards popularity and towards winning power again. It isn't his fault that the Tories abjectly failed to take advantage of the opportunity Major presented them with.

I know there will be members of the Labour party thinking along similar lines about their coming wipeout in the next election. Yes, they're going to lose power. Yes, they're going to see some key Labour figures suddenly deprived of their seats in the House of Commons. But the activists are going to get the chance to reshape the party and move in a new direction. They're going to get the opportunity to distance themselves from the deeply unpopular Brown administration and create a political movement suitable for the future.

That, of course, assumes that Brown will follow the example of John Major and step down after the next election. But the more I think about it the more I realise that Brown may decide to fight on.

Increasingly, our Prime Minister resembles Baby Jane Hudson; a demented, delusional figure who believes in a largely fictional reading of a past where he was far more popular than he is today. Brown believes he is doing the right thing, and that he is secretly popular. Anything that goes wrong is either the fault of someone else or is something that Brown refuses to acknowledge. If - sorry, when - he loses the General Election, he may decide that it wasn't his fault. Perhaps he'll blame the media, or other people in his party. Maybe he won't be able to admit to himself that he actually lost. He coveted the job of Prime Minister and of Labour leader for decades. The voters can decide whether he keeps the former job or not; it may be far from easy - especially in the aftermath of an electoral defeat - to get him to stand down from the latter job as well.

And there it is - the worst case scenario for Labour after the next election. Not only will they just have been through an electoral wipeout, but they could also be stuck with an grossly unpopular leader with a track record of one General Election fought, one General Election lost. At that point, they have to consider the very real possibility of removing Brown from his position as Labour leader. And a potentially divisive leadership contest would be made ten times worse by having to kick out the incumbent leader as well as dealing with the warring factions within the party.

John Major left his party with a clean slate to start again after 1997. Gordon Brown may not do the same thing for his party. And any Labour bloodletting to come after the electoral wipeout could be made so much worse if Brown does not step down. The dawning of a new Labour era could be signposted by the party having to commit political euthanasia against its last serving Prime Minister.