Election 2008: Obama and the polls

So the polls are narrowing, and it looks as if the decrepit McCain is gaining on the empty Obama. And as far as I can see there is one clear reason for this - the Obama World Tour!

Yes, travelling the world like he had already become President won him a lot of plaudits. However, it won him a lot of plaudits outside of the US. And being a popular Democrat outside of the US in this day and age is not difficult - frankly we would support a dribbling, screaming infant for President as long as it claimed to be a Democrat rather than a Republican. And Obama's strategy becomes even more flawed when you consider he is courting support from non-US nationals - ie those who can't vote. In the meantime, people in the US will be understandably confused as to why one of the candidates for President is not trying to get their support, and instead is already behaving like he has won. If I was an ignorant redneck in a Mid-West state, I would be fucking enraged*.

The election is still months away, and the polls (that are generally still seeing a slight Obama lead) could shift again, and there is every reason to think that they might shift in Obama's favour as there is to think they might shift in McCain's favour. But there is one big problem that Obama faces - namely, that he is running as the candidate for *change*.

*Change*, as totally nebulous as it might be, is a great thing to be supporting - if you are running against a candidate of the status quo. The problem Obama has is that change will happen anyway come January 2008. McCain, should he win, will be (mercifully) different to Bush. Change is coming, regardless of whether people vote for Obama or not. Obama needs a clearer reason for people to vote for him - it can't simply be a case of change, because if McCain was canny enough, he could run as the candidate of change too.

Looking at the Obama campaign, it seems to me that they haven't quite twigged yet that they are not running against George W Bush. Yes, if Bush was standing for President again, they would be whuppin' his sorry ass! But he isn't. They are up against the far more moderate McCain. And the constant moves by Obama to the right are strategic misfires - he needs to be distinguishing himself from McCain, not making himself more like his rival.

This being a high-profile election means there will be no shortage of armchair pundits offering their half-baked advice on what Obama should so to guarantee his victory come November. And given that, I'll throw my half-baked opinion into the ring as well. World Tours may be nice boosts to the ego, but they are going to mean the square root of fuck all to a voter in Arkansas or Delaware, who has never been abroad and doesn't really approve of the idea of there being a world outside of the United States anyway. The Obama campaign would be far better served by having their candidate making the case for why he should be President, and what he can offer the voters. It sounds like a really basic piece of advice; yet it is one that the Obama campaign seems to be in need of.

*Of course, if I was an ignorant redneck from a Mid-West state I would be fucking enraged anyway - not least at God for making me an ignorant redneck.