Bromley and Blaenau

The by-elections in Blaenau Gwent and Bromley and Chislehurst are apparently bad news for both Labour and the Tories.

Well, yes and no.

I don't think you can doubt that the results were terrible for Labour. Don't get me wrong, they were never going too be good. I don't think anyone can realistically see them winning in Bromley, but their vote dropped by 8,316. And they were beaten by UKIP. And Blaenau Gwent would never have been a victory, because they should never have lost in the 2005 General Election. But to lose both the national and Welsh Assembly seats in the same constituency in just over twelve months is an absolute disaster for the party. And just to hammer the point home, this was the seat occupied by Michael Foot and Nye Bevan. It shows just how far NuLabour has strayed from their core vote - they have lost again the seat of a former Labour leader and a Labour icon. The local elections earlier this year showed they were struggling to hold the middle ground, and Blaenau Gwent shows that they cannot hold their heartlands.

But I don't see the Bromley result as bad for the Conservatives. Yes, it could have been much better but they still won. They retained a seat in their heartlands, in spite of losing an iconic MP in the form of Eric Forth (the conservative equivalent of Tony Banks, I personally think) chosing a flawed candidate in the form of Bob Neill (who does not live in the constituency and has three other jobs) and a brutal campaign by the local Lib Dems (Ming the Merciful had to stop members of his party campaigning prior to the funeral of Mr Forth). Yes, Francis Maude may have sent out a page message to Tory MPs saying the result was disappointing and "shows change must move faster, wider and deeper" (see here), but that is pretty much all Maude says these days. The simple fact is that the Tories won in Bromley, Labour and the Liberal Democrats did not. Once winning a by-election would have been a pipe dream for the Tories - it is a sign of their growing strength and rising expectations that senior Conservatives see a victory as not good enough.

Put simply, the by-elections on Thursday have to be seen as a victory for the Tories as they were the only national party to win.